Issue #35: Initial attack success models Victoria (pdf)
Fires that escape initial attack tend to cause the greatest impacts and cost the most to put out. Rapid identification of fires with the potential to escape initial suppression efforts will aid early warnings to the public and prompt planning for large fire containment. A dataset compiled from 17 years of Victorian fire incidents, along with associated weather and geographic data, was used to develop improved models of initial attack success. The models use information available when a new fire is reported, such as fire location, prevailing weather, suppression resource travel speeds, and fuel type and are more robust and applicable than previous efforts.