Issue #31: The Vesta Mk 2 eucalypt forest fire spread model (pdf)
Reliable and accurate models of the speed of a wildfire front are essential for the timely prediction of its propagation across the landscape, identification of suitable suppression strategies and release of effective public warnings. We used data from field experimental fires and wildfires to derive an empirical model for the rate of forward spread of fires in eucalypt forests applicable to a broad range of wildfire behaviour. The model, named Vesta Mk 2, incorporates the effects of wind speed, fine dead fuel moisture, understorey fuel structure, long term landscape dryness and slope steepness.