Journal papers, book chapters and reports


Special issue of Climate Risk Management

The special issue, entitled ‘Climate Futures and Rural Livelihood Transformation in Eastern Indonesia’ reports a 4 year project in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, conducted under the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance in 2010-2014. With colleagues from the University of Mataram, we have written nine papers plus an editorial/synthesis, which describe the project’s approach, process, data, tools and evaluation. Each paper stands alone, but also links sequentially to other papers.

Creighton, C, AJ Hobday, M Lockwood & GT Pecl (2016). Adapting management of marine environments to a changing climate: a checklist to guide reform and assess progress. Ecosystems 19(2): 187-219. DOI 10.1007/s10021-015-9925-2.

Cvitanovic, C, S Crimp, A Fleming, J Bell, M Howden, AJ Hobday, M Taylor & R Cunningham (2016). Building food secure and climate adapted Pacific Island communities: from knowledge to action. Climate Risk Management 11: 53–62. DOI 10.1016/j.crm.2016.01.003.

Gorddard, R, Colloff, MJ, Wise, RM, Ware, D & Dunlop, M (2016). Values, rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context. Environmental Science & Policy 57: 60-69. DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.004.

Hobday, AJ, K Cochrane, N Downey-Breedt, J Howard, S Aswani, V Byfield, G Duggan, E Duna, LXC Dutra, SD Frusher, EA Fulton, L Gammage, MA Gasalla, C Griffiths, A Guissamulo, M Haward, A Jarre, SM Jennings, T Jordan, J Joyner, NK Ramani, SLP Shanmugasundaram, W Malherbe, KO Cisneros, A Paytan, GT Pecl, ÉE Plagányi, EE Popova, H Razafindrainibe, M Roberts, P Rohit, SS Sainulabdeen, W Sauer, ST Valappil, PU Zacharia and EI v Putten (2016). Planning adaptation to climate change in fast-warming marine regions with seafood-dependent coastal communities. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries DOI 10.1007/s11160-016-9419-0.


Butler, JRA, Bohensky, EL, Suadnya, W, Yanuartati, Y, Handayani, T, Habibi, P, Puspadi, K., Skewes, T, Wise, R Suharto, I, Park, SE & Sutaryono, Y (2015). Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach. Climate Risk Management.

Chambers, LE, TA Patterson, AJ Hobday, JPY Arnould, GN Tuck, C Wilcox & P Dann (2015). Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and bird data: Examples from Southern Australia. Regional Environmental Change 15(1): 197-209 DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0634-8.

Cvitanovic, C, AJ Hobday, L van Kerkoff & NA Marshall (2015). Overcoming barriers to knowledge exchange for adaptive resource management; the perspectives of Australian marine scientists. Marine Policy 52: 38–44.

Cvitanovic, C, AJ Hobday, L van Kerkoff, SK Wilson, K Dobbs and NA Marshall (2015). Improving knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers to facilitate the adaptive governance of marine resources: a review of knowledge and research needs. Ocean and Coastal Management 112: 25-35.

Ekstrom, M, Grose, M & Whetton, P (2015). An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research. WIREs Climate Change, 6(3): 301-319.

Hobday, AJ, LE Chambers & JPY Arnould (2015). Prioritizing climate change adaptation options for iconic marine species. Biodiversity and Conservation 24(14): 3449-3468. DOI 10.1007/s10531-015-1007-4.

Lavorel, S, Colloff, MJ, McIntyre, S, Doherty, MD, Murphy, HT, Metcalfe, DJ, Dunlop, M, Williams, D, Wise, R & Williams, KJ (2015). Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services. Global change biology, 21(1), 12-31.

Lim-Camacho, L., A. J. Hobday, R. H. Bustamante, A. Farmery, A. Fleming, S. Frusher, B. S. Green, A. Norman-Lopez, G. Pecl, E. E. Plaganyi, P. Schrobback, O. Thebaud, L. Thomas and E. I. van Putten (2015). Facing the wave of change: Stakeholder perspectives on climate adaptation for Australian seafood supply chains. Regional Environmental Change 15(4): 595-606. DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0670-4.

Little, LR, AJ Hobday, JS Parslow, CR Davies and RQ Grafton (2015). Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives. Climate Risk Management 8: 9–15.DOI 10.1016/j.crm.2015.02.002.

Lyth, A, A Harwood, AJ Hobday and J McDonald (2015). Place influences in framing and understanding climate change adaptation challenges. Local Environment DOI 10.1080/13549839.2015.1015974.

Metcalf, SJ, EI van Putten, S Frusher, NA Marshall, M Tull, N Caputi, M Haward, AJ Hobday, NJ Holbrook, S Jennings, GT Pecl & J Shaw (2015). Measuring the vulnerability of marine socio-ecological systems: A prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations. Ecology and Society 20(2): 35. DOI 10.5751/ES-07509-200235.

Spillman, CM, JR Hartog, AJ Hobday & D Hudson (2015). Predicting environmental drivers for prawn aquaculture production to aid improved farm management. Aquaculture 447: 56–65. DOI 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2015.02.008.

Wang, CH, Baynes, T, McFallan, S, West, J, Khoo, YB, Wang, X, Quezada, G, Mazouz, A, Herr, A, Beaty, M, Langston, A, Li, Y, Lau, R, Hatfield-Dodds, S, Stafford Smith, M & Waring, A (2015). Rising tides: adaptation policy alternatives for coastal residential buildings in Australia. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 12: 463–476. DOI 10.1080/15732479.2015.1020500


Cvitanovic, C, NA Marshall, SK Wilson, K Dobbs & AJ Hobday (2014). Perceptions of Australian marine protected area managers regarding the role, importance and achievability of adaptation for managing the risks of climate change. Ecology and Society 19(4): 33.

Fleming, A, AJ Hobday, A Farmery, EI van Putten, GT Pecl, BS Green and L Lim-Camacho (2014). Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – a preliminary assessment. Climate Risk Management 1: 39-50. DOI 10.1016/j.crm.2013.12.003.

Hobday, AJ & GT Pecl (2014). Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation action. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 24: 415-425. DOI 10.1007/s11160-013-9326-6.

Hodgkinson, JA, AJ Hobday and EA Pinkard (2014). Climate adaptation in Australia’s resource-extraction industries: ready or not? Regional Environmental Change 14(4): 1663-167. DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0618-8.

Maru, Y & Stafford Smith, M (2014) GEC special edition – Reframing adaptation pathways. Global Environmental Change 28, 322-324. DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.004.

Maru, YT, Stafford Smith, M, Sparrow, A, Pinho, PF & Dube, OP (2014). A linked vulnerability and resilience framework for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities. Global Environmental Change 28: 337-350. DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.007

Pecl, GT, T Ward, ZA Doubleday, S Clarke, J Day, C Dixon, S Frusher, PJ Gibbs, AJ Hobday, N Hutchinson, S Jennings, K Jones, X Li, D Spooner & R Stoklosa (2014). Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change. Climatic Change 127(3): 505-520. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1284-z.

Plaganyi, EE, EI van Putten, O Thebaud, AJ Hobday, J Innes, L Lim-Camacho, A Norman-Lopez, RH Bustamante, A Farmery, A Fleming, S Frusher, BS Green, E Hoshino, S Jennings, G Pecl, S Pascoe, P Schrobback & L Thomas (2014). A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks. PLoS ONE 9(3): e91833. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0091833.

Siebentritt, M, Halsey, N & Stafford Smith, M (2014).  Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the Eyre Peninsula. Seed Consulting Services, South Australia, 82 pp.

Turner, S, Marlow, D, Ekstrom, M, Rhodes, B Kularathna, U & Jeffrey, P (2014). Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system. Water Resources Research 50(4): 3553–3567.

Wise, RM, Fazey, I, Smith, M, Park, SE, Eakin, HC, Van Garderen, EA & Campbell, B (2014). Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Global Environmental Change 28: 325-336.


Dunlop M (2013) Biodiversity: Strategy conservation. Nature Climate Change 3: 1019-1020. DOI 10.1038/nclimate2063.

Dunlop M, Parris, H, Ryan, P & Kroon, F (2013). Climate-ready conservation objectives: A scoping study. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 102 pp.

Ekstrom, M, Kuruppu, N, Wilby, R, Fowler, H, Chiew, F, Dessai, S & Young, B (2013). Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework – applications in the water sector. Global Environmental Change 23(1): 115-129.

Hobday, AJ, JW Young, O Abe, DP Costa, RK Cowen, K Evans, MA Gasalla, R Kloser, O Maury & KC Weng (2013). Climate Impacts and Oceanic Top Predators: Moving from impacts to adaptation in oceanic systems. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 23(4): 537-54. DOI  10.1007/s11160-013-9311-0.


Casaril, C, Ekstrom, M & Grigg, N (2012). Hydro-climate knowledge needs for climate change adaptation. Freshwater Ecosystems and Water Resources Applications. Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Report series ISSN: 1835-095X, CSIRO, 127 pp.

Dunlop, M, Hilbert, DW, Stafford Smith, M, Davies, R, James, CD, Ferrier, S, House, A, Liedloff, A Proper, SM, Smyth, A, Martin, TG, Harwood, T, Williams, KJ, Fletcher, C & Murphy, H (2012). Implications for policymakers: Climate change, biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship report, Canberra, 12 pp.

Stafford Smith, M & Russell, L (2012). A resilience view on reframing geoengineering research and implementation. Carbon Management 3(1): 23–25. DOI 10.4155/cmt.11.71

Williams, K, Dunlop, M, Bustamante, R, Murphy, H, Ferrier, S, Wise, R, Liedloff, A, Skewes, T, Harwood, T, Kroon, F, Williams, D, Joehnk, K, Crimp, S, Stafford Smith, M, James, C & Booth, T (2012). Queensland’s biodiversity under climate change: impacts and adaptation – synthesis report. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Canberra, 104 pp.


Cleugh, H, Stafford Smith, M, Battaglia, M & Graham, P (2011). Responding to a changing climate, in Cleugh, H, Stafford Smith, M, Battaglia, M & Graham, P (eds), Climate Change: science and solutions for Australia, CSIRO Publishing, pp 135-138.

Prober, SM & Dunlop, M(2011). Climate change: a cause for new biodiversity conservation objectives but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Ecological Management and Restoration 12(1), 2. DOI 10.1111/j.1442-8903.2011.00563.x


Stafford Smith, M, Horrocks, L, Harvey, A & Hamilton, C (2010). Rethinking Adaptation for a 4°C World, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369(1934): 196-216. DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0277


Campbell, D, Stafford Smith, M, Davies, J, Kuipers, P, Wakerman, J & McGregor, MJ (2008). Responding to health impacts of climate change in the Australian desert. Rural and Remote Health (Internet) 2008; 8: 1008.

Hennessy, KJ, Fawcett, R, Kirono, DGC, Mpelasoka, FS, Jones, D, Bathols, JM, Whetton, PH, Stafford Smith, M, Howden, M, Mitchell, CD & Plummer, N (2008). An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events. CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Aspendale, 33 pp.

Nelson, R, Howden, M & Stafford Smith, M (2008). Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. Environmental Science and Policy 11: 588-601. DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.06.005


Ash, AJ, McIntosh, P, Cullen, P, Carberry, PS & Stafford Smith, M (2007). Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58: 952-965. DOI 10.1071/AR06188

Stafford Smith, DM; McKeon, GM, Watson, IW, Henry, BK, Stone, GS, Hall, WB & Howden, SM (2007) Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian rangelands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104(52): 20690–20695. DOI 10.1073/pnas.0704837104


McIntosh, PC, Ash, AJ & Stafford Smith, M (2001). From oceans to farms – the agricultural potential of ocean-based forecasts. Proceedings of the Australian Agronomy Conference 10.


Ash, AJ, O’Reagain, P, McKeon, GM & Stafford Smith, M (2000). Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: a case study of Dalrymple Shire, north-eastern Australia. Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, pp 253-270.

Campbell, B, Stafford Smith, M & GCTE Pastures and Rangelands Network members (2000). A synthesis of recent global change research on pasture and rangeland production : reduced uncertainties and their management implications. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82: 39-55. DOI 10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00215-2

Grainger, A, Stafford Smith, M, Squires, VR & Glenn, E (2000). Desertification and climate change: the case for greater convergence. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5: 361-377. DOI 10.1023/A:1026537621437

O’Meagher, B, Stafford Smith, M & White, DH (2000). Approaches to integrated drought risk management : Australia’s national drought policy. Drought : A Global Assessment, Routledge, London, pp 115-128.

Polley, HW, Morgan, JA, Campbell, B & Stafford Smith, M (2000). Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: rangelands. Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity, CAB International, Wallingford, pp 293-314.

Stafford Smith, M, Buxton, R, McKeon, GM & Ash, AJ (2000). Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: do production benefits translate into enterprise profits? Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, pp 271-289.


Stafford Smith, M & McKeon, GM (1998). Assessing the historical frequency of drought events on grazing properties in Australian rangelands. Agricultural Systems 57: 271-299. DOI 10.1016/S0308-521X(98)00019-5


Hatch, GP & Stafford Smith, M (1997). The bioeconomic implications of various drought management strategies for a communal cattle herd in the semi-arid savanna of KwaZulu-Natal. African Journal of Range & Forage Science 14: 7-25. DOI 10.1080/10220119.1997.9647914


Allen-Diaz, B, Chapin, FS, Díaz, S, Howden, SM, Puigdefábregas, J & Stafford Smith, M (1996). Rangelands in a changing climate: impacts, adaptations, and mitigation. Climate Change 1995 : Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 131-158.

Buxton, R & Stafford Smith, M (1996). Managing drought in Australia’s rangelands: four weddings and a funeral. Rangeland Journal 18: 292-308. DOI 10.1071/RJ9960292

McKeon, GM, Carter, JO, Stafford-Smith, M, Ash, A, Pittock, AB & Howden, SM (1996). Evaluating impact of climate change on Queensland’s grazing lands. Climate Impacts Assessment Workshop abstracts: development and application of climate change scenarios, 1995, Australian Chamber of Manufacturers Conference Centre, pp 59-60.

Stafford Smith, M, McKeon, GM, Ash, AJ, Buxton, R & Breen, J (1996). Droughtplan: Developing Strategies with Graziers, Profitable and Sustainable Strategies to Manage for Rainfall Variability: Evaluating the Use of SOI Forecasts in North Queensland Using the Herd-Econ/GRASP Linked Model. Droughtplan Working Paper: LUCNA (Land Use Change in Northern Australia) Working Paper, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Alice Springs, 50 pp.

Stafford Smith, M, West, J & Thiele K (1996). Biogeographic patterns in inland Australia: the role of isolation and uncertainty. Exploring Central Australia: Society, the Environment and the 1894 Horn Expedition, Surrey Beatty, Chipping Norton, pp 368-78.


Stafford Smith, M (1995). Likely impacts of global change on the Australian rangelands. Climate Change Newsletter 7(2): 10-13.

Stafford Smith, M, Campbell, B, Steffen, WL, Archer, S & Ojima, D (1995). GCTE Task 3.1.3. Global change impacts on pastures and rangelands implementation plan developed at a workshop in Canberra, Australia 12-15 July 1994. Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems Report, GCTE Core Project Office, Canberra, 59 pp.


Stafford Smith, M, Campbell, B, Steffen, WL & Archer, S (1994). State-of-the-science assessment of the likely impacts of global change on the rangelands: workshop report. GCTE Working Document, CSIRO Division of Wildlife & Ecology and GCTE Core Project Office , Canberra, 72 pp.


Stafford Smith, M (1993). A regional framework for managing the variability of production in the rangelands of Australia. CSIRO/RIRDC Project CSW-28A. Defining Stocking Rate Strategies for Viable and Sustainable Production in the Face of Market and Climatic Variability. Project Report, CSIRO National Rangelands Program, Alice Springs, 63 pp.


McKeon, GM, Howden, SM & Stafford Smith, M (1992). The management of extensive agriculture: greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Assessing Technologies and Management Systems for Agriculture and Forestry in Relation to Global Climate Change, AGPS, Canberra, pp 42-47.

Stafford Smith, M & Foran, B (1992). An approach to assessing the economic risk of different drought management tactics on a South Australian pastoral sheep station. Agricultural Systems 39: 83-105. DOI 10.1016/0308-521X(92)90006-A


Foran, B & Stafford Smith, M (1991). Risk, biology and drought management strategies for cattle stations in central Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 33: 17-33. DOI 10.1016/S0301-4797(05)80045-3


Foran, BD, Friedel, MH, Macleod, ND, Stafford Smith, DM & Wilson, AD (1990). A policy for the future of Australia’s rangelands. CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Canberra 24 pp.

Friedel, MH, Foran, B & Stafford Smith, M (1990). Where the creeks run dry or ten feet high: Pastoral management in arid Australia. Proceedings of the Ecological Society of Australia 16: 185-194.