NESP Project 2.3 / CSC Decadal Prediction Workshop
Organiser: Terry O’Kane
The workshop was jointly organised as part of CSIRO’s 10 year investment into the underpinning science of climate forecasting, and with investment predominantly from the NESP Earth Climate Change Science hub project 2.3 “Towards and ACCESS decadal prediction system”. The goal of the workshop was to faster scientific communication and collaboration between CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and University researchers in the challenging area of seasonal to near term climate prediction.
The workshop covered all aspects of the science underpinning efforts to develop useful near term to decadal climate forecasts. The workshop presentations were a selection of invited and submitted presentations in five topics; 1) Model configurations and biases, 2) Data assimilation and observations, 3) initialization, optimal perturbations and ensemble prediction, 4) verification metrics and calibration and 5) processes and predictability. Presentations were followed discussion sessions.
CSIRO Presentations:
- Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Assimilation by Paul Sandery
- Statistical Post-Processing of GCM Forecasts by Andrew Schepen
- Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) System Design and Future Developments
by Terry O’Kane - Potential Predictability of Tropical Pacific Ocean by Richard Matear
- An overview of the PyLatte verification package and some preliminary results from the CAFE system by Dougie Squire
- The CABLE land surface model in ACCESS by Tilo Ziehn
Bureau of Meteorology Presentations:
- BOM Climate Forecast Verification Strategy and Metrics by William Wang
- ACCESS -S: S1 Results, Plans for S2, Skill Evaluation by Oscar Alves