CAFE forecast included in new WMO five-year climate predictions

July 10th, 2020

The CSIRO CAFE forecasting system has been used in the development of a new Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update released on 9th July 2020 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with the United Kingdom’s Met Office.

The widely reported new update has shown that global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in each year between 2020 and 2024. And there is a 20 per cent chance that it will exceed 1.5 °C in at least one year.

The update has harnessed the research of a group of climate prediction centres from around the world, including that of our CSIRO Decadal Forecasting Team.

Here is a snapshot of the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update:

  • Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C
  • There is a ~70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels
  • There is a ~20% chance that one of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time
  • It is extremely unlikely (~3%) that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels
  • Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past
  • Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer
  • Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe
  • In 2020, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
  • In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean
  • The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
  • In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past

The WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide. Read the full WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

Read the World Meteorological Organization’s press statement.

Ensemble mean forecasts from 2020-2024