combines coupled modelling with ensemble data assimilation and prediction to provide the core of the Climate Analysis and Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) System. The CAFE system is configured as a research tool to characterise the climate state over the recent past, to investigate the predictability of the climate system and in time to provide skilful multi-year climate forecasts.
Utilizing multi-year forecasts of the relevant climate observables relies on the development of coupled ocean atmosphere climate models in combination with advanced initialization schemes underpinned by modern data assimilation methods and a rigorous mathematical framework. The factors that enable these advances at this point in time are:
Advances in our understanding of the climate system, based on theoretical and observational studies, have highlighted some of the key processes, particularly in the ocean, upon which multi-year predictability depends. Importantly, climate models now feature high enough spatial resolution to simulate many of these processes with sufficiently realistic fidelity to resolve key processes.
Further, advances in computational power and storage now makes feasible ensemble forecasts of sufficient size that estimates of not only the mean future climatic state but also the uncertainty in the climate system are possible.
The goal is to develop a predictive framework that enables informed strategic decisions that exploit knowledge of climate variability over multiyear to decadal scale.
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|Matear, Richard; Lenton, Andrew (2018) Carbon-Climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification Biogeosciences 15 1721-1732 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1721-2018|
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|O’Kane, Terry; Monselesan, Didier; Risbey, James; Horenko, Illia; Franzke, Christian (2017) On memory, dimension and atmospheric teleconnections Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting 3 (1) 1-27 https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2017-0001|