Contemporary fuels information

Currently, fuels data that are used as inputs to fire intensity modelling are treated as either static inputs, or with a fixed recovery profile when fire temporarily reduces fuel loads. 

However, fuel loads are highly dynamic, responding to recent growing conditions, management actions and the magnitude of disturbances.

The National Bushfire Intelligence Capability is developing a new approach to the mapping and measuring of fuels across Australia.

We combine remote sensing, dynamic vegetation modelling, fire history, data ground truthing and generate estimates of fuel loads (and related vegetation attributes) that dynamically vary through time.

Dynamically modelled fuels data will provide a dramatic improvement in the estimation of current fuel loads and vegetation attributes to support better prediction of fire spread and severity potential.

Dynamic vegetation models will also provide better connections to other national-scale assessment activities such as carbon accounting, landscape values assessment, and the transition of vegetation for one typology to another.

Once a dynamic vegetation modelling approach becomes calibrated and widely adopted it can then progress to provide projections of future possible vegetation states in response to planned and unplanned fire.

Projects contributing to contemporary fuels information

Using State and Transition Simulation Models to assess the future of Tasmania’s wet forests

State and Transition Simulation Models (S&TSMs) have been used internationally to make fine-scale estimates of future ecosystem change, especially due to climate change and bushfires.

Their use in Australia, however, has been limited. This project aims to develop S&TSMs for operational use in Australian environments, using Tasmania’s southern forests (including sclerophyll forest, rainforest, and buttongrass) as a case study.

This project will help NBIC achieve three goals:

• developing a model to predict future fuels and fire risk in wet forests across Australia
• using it to produce a nationwide fire-risk map
• helping communities build capacity to predict and manage future bushfire risk.