Methodology
The complex interplay of vegetation, weather, and terrain – the 3 fundamental drivers of bushfire behaviour – has historically been difficult to model comprehensively at a national scale.
The National Bushfire Intelligence Capability (NBIC) addresses these challenges through a socio-technical system that delivers nationally consistent, climate-adjusted bushfire hazard data.
The NBIC methodology integrates:
- advanced weather analytics from historical reanalysis and future climate projections across 6 Global Climate Models
- dynamic vegetation mapping through the Bushfire Fuel Classification (BFC) system
- high-resolution terrain data from Geoscience Australia’s Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission
- 8 specialised fire behaviour models
to produce Fireline Intensity Potential – baseline and projected.
NBIC also integrates a socio-technical component, outlined in the Stage 2 Methodology, consisting of governance and stakeholder engagement, both essential to achieve accountability, transparency and sustainable long-term value.
Stage 1 Methodology
The National Bushfire Intelligence Capability (NBIC) Stage 1 Methodology for national bushfire hazard mapping established the foundational architecture of the capability, creating modular and scalable workflows that operate from local to continental scales.
Stage 2 Methodology
The Development of nationally consistent data for bushfire hazard mapping – National Bushfire Intelligence Capability (NBIC) Stage 2, significantly advances Stage 1 capabilities by refining modelling frameworks, incorporating higher-resolution data, and enhancing temporal and spatial granularity to produce nationally consistent climate-adjusted bushfire hazard data.
Bushfire Fuel Classification
This methodology outlines a hierarchical, structure-based classification system for fuel complexes, enabling distinct fuel extents and characterisations to be mapped directly to fire behaviour models used in Australia.
The Bushfire Fuel Classification (BFC) dataset advances the science of fuel mapping in Australia, particularly in terms of currency, consistency, and the ability to automate mapping updates. These factors mean relying heavily on satellite data from which vegetation structural data can be generated.
Additional to these methodology documents are technical documents to support users in use and interpretation of NBIC data.
Technical Report 1
Parameters and equations for fireline intensity calculations outlines the data and parameters prepared by the National Bushfire Intelligence Capability (NBIC) to evaluate nationally consistent long-term fireline intensity (FLI) extremes.
A description of each model and required parameters is provided, and details of the NBIC derived data including highlightable features and limitations.
Explainers
Building Loss Probability
A bushfire can impact a building and surrounding combustible elements through 3 principal mechanisms: direct flame contact, ember attack and radiant heat exposure. The nature, intensity and duration of these attacking mechanisms can influence the extent to which buildings are damaged and destroyed.
This explainer outlines how Building Loss Probability (BLP) estimates the chance that a building will be destroyed in a bushfire, based on broad landscape factors – such as fireline intensity, proximity to vegetation, the terrain and bark hazard – it does not include specific building features or mitigation actions.