Dynamic fuels
Providing standardised national fuels data that reflects current conditions.
A photo of Eucalypt and Grass tree vegetation layers
Fuel loads are highly dynamic, responding to recent growing conditions, management actions and the magnitude of disturbances
Currently, fuels data that are used as inputs to fire intensity modelling are treated as either static inputs, or with a fixed recovery profile when fire temporarily reduces fuel loads.
However, fuel loads are highly dynamic, responding to recent growing conditions, management actions and the magnitude of disturbances.
There is a need for automated methods for generating consistent, nationally standardised, continuously varying and dynamic layers of fuel parameters.
The National Bushfire Intelligence Capability is developing a new approach to the mapping and measuring of fuels across Australia.
We combine remote sensing, dynamic vegetation modelling, fire history and data ground truthing to generate estimates of fuel loads (and related vegetation attributes) that dynamically vary through time.
Dynamically modelled fuels data will provide a dramatic improvement in the estimation of current fuel loads and vegetation attributes to support better prediction of fire spread and severity potential.
Dynamic vegetation models will also provide better connections to other national-scale assessment activities such as carbon accounting, landscape values assessment, and the transition of vegetation from one typology to another.
Once a dynamic vegetation modelling approach becomes calibrated and widely adopted it can then progress to provide projections of future possible vegetation states in response to planned and unplanned fire.
A schematic diagram of the NBIC dynamic fuels inputs and outputs.
The primary objective of the NBIC dynamic fuels work is to develop automated methods for generating nationally consistent, continuously varying and dynamic layers of fuel parameters that are multi-functional in application.
Planned products
Fuel types: Fuel type maps (using various classification schemes e.g., Bushire Fuels Classification) and underlying vegetation structural attributes (heights, cover).
Fuel parameters: Temporally dynamic and spatially varying forest canopy and forest surface fuel loads and grassland fuel loads.
Use cases
Examples of how the national burnt area data has been applied.
Forthcoming
Projects contributing to dynamic fuels information
Using State and Transition Simulation Models to assess the future of Tasmania’s wet forests
An image of Eucalypt tree canopy
State and Transition Simulation Models are powerful tools for projecting ecological and vegetation changes
State and Transition Simulation Models (S&TSMs) have been used internationally to make fine-scale estimates of future ecosystem change, especially due to climate change and bushfires.
Their use in Australia, however, has been limited. This project aims to develop S&TSMs for operational use in Australian environments, using Tasmania’s southern forests (including sclerophyll forest, rainforest, and buttongrass) as a case study.
This project will help NBIC achieve 3 goals:
- developing a model to predict future fuels and fire risk in wet forests across Australia
- using it to produce a nationwide fire-risk map
- helping communities build capacity to predict and manage future bushfire risk.