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Below are publications from the Macroecological Modelling Team that are relevant to the core focus of the team. Individual team members will have authored additional publications to these, on other topics.


Bush, A, Catullo, RA, Mokany, K, Thornhill, AH, Miller, JT, Ferrier, S (2018) Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. Global Ecology and Biogeography 27: 22-31.

Bonebrake TC, Brown CJ, Bell JD et al. (incl. Ferrier, S) (2018) Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science. Biological Reviews, 93, 284-305.


Mokany, K., Jordan, G.J., Harwood, T.D., Harrison, P.A., Keppel, G., Gilfedder, L., Carter, O., Ferrier, S. 2016. Past, present and future refugia for Tasmania’s palaeoendemic flora. Journal of Biogeography 44, 1537–1546.

Mateo, R.G., Mokany, K., Guisan, A. (2017) Biodiversity models: what if unsaturation is the rule? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32: 556-566.

Johnston, MR, Elmore, AJ, Mokany, K, Lisk, M, Fitzpatrick, MC (2017) Field‐measured variables outperform derived alternatives in Maryland stream biodiversity models. Diversity and Distributions 23: 1054-1066.

Tucker CM, Cadotte MW, Carvalho SB et al. (incl. Ferrier, S) (2017) A guide to phylogenetic metrics for conservation, community ecology and macroecology. Biological Reviews, 92, 698-715.

Rosa IMD, Pereira HM, Ferrier S et al. (2017) Multiscale scenarios for nature futures. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 1416-1419.

Pennifold MG, Williams KJ, Pinder AM, Harwood TD, Manion G, Ferrier S (2017) Whole-landscape modelling of compositional turnover in aquatic invertebrates informs conservation gap analysis: An example from south-western Australia. Freshwater Biology, 62, 1359-1376.

Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD et al. (incl. Ferrier, S) (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science, 355,

James CS, Reside AE, VanDerWal J et al. (incl. Harwood TD) (2017) Sink or swim? Potential for high faunal turnover in Australian rivers under climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 489-501.

Ferrier S, Jetz W, Scharlemann J (2017) Biodiversity Modelling as Part of an Observation System. In: The GEO Handbook on Biodiversity Observation Networks (Walters M, Scholes RJ), pp 239-257. Springer International Publishing, Cham.

Drielsma MJ, Love J, Williams KJ, Manion G, Saremi H, Harwood T, Robb J (2017) Bridging the gap between climate science and regional-scale biodiversity conservation in south-eastern Australia. Ecological Modelling, 360, 343-362.

De Palma A, Kuhlmann M, Bugter R , Ferrier S, Hoskins AJ et al. (2017) Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees. Diversity and Distributions, 23, 1435-1446.

Bush A, Sollmann R, Wilting A et al.  (incl. Ferrier S) (2017) Connecting Earth observation to high-throughput biodiversity data. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 0176.


Bush, A., Mokany, K., Catullo, R., Hoffmann, A., Kellermann, V.,  Sgrò, C., McEvey, S., Ferrier, S.  2016. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. Ecology Letters 19: 1468-1478.

McCarthy, J.K., Mokany, K., Dwyer, J.M. 2016. Estimating plant abundances from crown cover and forest structure data reveals size‐dependent patterns of rarity in subtropical Australia. Applied Vegetation Science 19: 700-710.

Burley, H.M., Mokany, K., Ferrier, S., Laffan, S.W., Williams, K.J. & Harwood, T.D. 2016. Primary productivity is weakly related to floristic alpha and beta diversity across Australia. Global Ecology and Biogeography 25: 1294-1307.

Turak, E., Harrison, I., Dudgeon, D., Abell, R., Bush, A., Darwall, W., Finlayson, C.M., Ferrier, S., Freyhof, J., Hermoso, V., Juffe-Bignoli, D., Linke, S., Nel, J., Patricio, H.C., Pittock, J., Raghavan, R., Revenga, C., Simaika, J.P. & De Wever, A. 2016. Essential Biodiversity Variables for measuring change in global freshwater biodiversity. Biological Conservation 213, 272-279.

Turak, E., Brazill-Boast, J., Cooney, T., Drielsma, M., DelaCruz, J., Dunkerley, G., Fernandez, M., Ferrier, S., Gill, M., Jones, H., Koen, T., Leys, J., McGeoch, M., Mihoub, J.-B., Scanes, P., Schmeller, D., Williams, K.J. 2016. Using the essential biodiversity variables framework to measure biodiversity change at national scale. Biological Conservation 213, 264-271.

Drielsma, M.J., Foster, E., Ellis, M., Gill, R.A., Prior, J., Kumar, L., Saremi, H., Ferrier, S. 2016. Assessing collaborative, privately managed biodiversity conservation derived from an offsets program: Lessons from the Southern Mallee of New South Wales, Australia. Land Use Policy 59: 59-70.

Gray, C.L., Hill, S.L.L., Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Borger, L., Contu, S., Hoskins, A.J., Ferrier, S., Purvis, A. & Scharlemann, J.P.W. 2016. Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Nature Communications 7: 12306.

Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Arnell, A.P., Contu, S., De Palma, A., Ferrier, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hoskins, A.J., Lysenko, I., Phillips, H.R.P., Burton, V.J., Chng, C.W.T., Emerson, S., Gao, D., Pask-Hale, G., Hutton, J., Jung, M., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Simmons, B.I., Whitmee, S., Zhang, H., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Purvis, A. 2016. Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science 353: 288-291.

Harwood, T.D., Donohue, R.J., Williams, K.J., Ferrier, S., McVicar, T.R., Newell, G., White, M. 2016 Habitat Condition Assessment System: a new way to assess the condition of natural habitats for terrestrial biodiversity across whole regions using remote sensing data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 7: 1050–1059.

Burley, H.M., Mokany, K., Ferrier, S., Laffan, S.W., Williams, K.J. & Harwood, T.D. 2016. Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change. Ecology and Evolution 6: 2579-2593.

Bush, A., Harwood, T., Hoskins, A.J., Mokany, K. & Ferrier, S. 2016. Current Uses of Beta-Diversity in Biodiversity Conservation: A response to Socolar. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 31: 337-338

Di Marco, M., T. Brooks, A. Cuttelod, L. D. C. Fishpool, C. Rondinini, R. J. Smith, L. Bennun, S. H. M. Butchart, S. Ferrier, R. P. B. Foppen, L. Joppa, D. Juffe-Bignoli, A. T. Knight, J. F. Lamoreux, P. F. Langhammer, I. May, H. P. Possingham, P. Visconti, J. E. M. Watson, and S. Woodley. 2016. Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas. Conservation Biology 30:392-402.

Jones, M. M., N. Gibson, C. Yates, S. Ferrier, K. Mokany, K. J. Williams, G. Manion, and J.-C. Svenning. 2016. Underestimated effects of climate on plant species turnover in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region. Journal of Biogeography 43: 289-300.

Hoskins, A.J., Bush, A., Gilmore, J., Harwood, T.D., Hudson, L.N., Ware, C., Williams, K.J. & Ferrier, S. 2016. Downscaling land-use data to provide global 30″ estimates of five land-use classes. Ecology and Evolution 6: 3040–3055.

Maguire, K. C., D. Nieto-Lugilde, J. L. Blois, M. C. Fitzpatrick, J. W. Williams, S. Ferrier, and D. J. Lorenz. 2016. Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities. Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society 283.

Mokany, K., S. Ferrier, S. R. Connolly, P. K. Dunstan, E. A. Fulton, M. B. Harfoot, T. D. Harwood, A. J. Richardson, S. H. Roxburgh, J. P. W. Scharlemann, D. P. Tittensor, D. A. Westcott, and B. A. Wintle. 2016. Integrating modelling of biodiversity composition and ecosystem function. Oikos 125:10-19.

Paini, D.R. & Mokany, K. 2016. Birds of a feather: using species assemblages to assess vulnerability to extinction. Ecological Applications 26: 415-423.



Catullo, R. A., S. Ferrier, and A. A. Hoffmann. 2015. Extending spatial modelling of climate change responses beyond the realized niche: estimating, and accommodating, physiological limits and adaptive evolution. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24:1192-1202.

Cowling, R. M., A. J. Potts, P. L. Bradshaw, J. Colville, M. Arianoutsou, S. Ferrier, F. Forest, N. M. Fyllas, S. D. Hopper, F. Ojeda, S. Proches, R. J. Smith, P. W. Rundel, E. Vassilakis, and B. R. Zutta. 2015. Variation in plant diversity in mediterranean-climate ecosystems: the role of climatic and topographical stability. Journal of Biogeography 42:552-564.

Hamer, J. J., E. J. Veneklaas, P. Poot, K. Mokany, and M. Renton. 2015. Shallow environmental gradients put inland species at risk: Insights and implications from predicting future distributions of Eucalyptus species in South Western Australia. Austral Ecology 40:923-932.

Hatfield-Dodds, S., H. Schandl, P. D. Adams, T. M. Baynes, T. S. Brinsmead, B. A. Bryan, F. H. S. Chiew, P. W. Graham, M. Grundy, T. D. Harwood, R. McCallum, R. McCrea, L. E. McKellar, D. Newth, M. Nolan, I. Prosser, and A. Wonhas. 2015. Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures. Nature 527:49-53.

Keppel, G., K. Mokany, G. W. Wardell-Johnson, B. L. Phillips, J. A. Welbergen, and A. E. Reside. 2015. The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13:106-112.

Mokany, K., S. Prasad, and D. A. Westcott. 2015. Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24:685-694.

Mokany, K., J. J. Thomson, A. J. J. Lynch, G. J. Jordan, and S. Ferrier. 2015. Linking changes in community composition and function under climate change. Ecological Applications 25:2132-2141.



Bell, K. L., T. A. Heard, G. Manion, S. Ferrier, and R. D. van Klinken. 2014. Characterising the phytophagous arthropod fauna of a single host plant species: assessing survey completeness at continental and local scales. Biodiversity and Conservation 23:2985-3003.

Bryan, B. A., M. Nolan, T. D. Harwood, J. D. Connor, J. Navarro-Garcia, D. King, D. M. Summers, D. Newth, Y. Cai, N. Grigg, I. Harman, N. D. Crossman, M. J. Grundy, J. J. Finnigan, S. Ferrier, K. J. Williams, K. A. Wilson, E. A. Law, and S. Hatfield-Dodds. 2014. Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia’s agricultural land under global change. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 28:166-181.

Burrows, M. T., D. S. Schoeman, A. J. Richardson, J. G. Molinos, A. Hoffmann, L. B. Buckley, P. J. Moore, C. J. Brown, J. F. Bruno, C. M. Duarte, B. S. Halpern, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, C. V. Kappel, W. Kiessling, M. I. O’Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, W. Sydeman, S. Ferrier, K. J. Williams, and E. S. Poloczanska. 2014. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507:492.

Drielsma, M., S. Ferrier, G. Howling, G. Manion, S. Taylor, and J. Love. 2014. The Biodiversity Forecasting Toolkit: Answering the ‘how much’, ‘what’, and ‘where’ of planning for biodiversity persistence. Ecological Modelling 274:80-91.

Harwood, T. D., K. Mokany, and D. R. Paini. 2014. Microclimate is integral to the modeling of plant responses to macroclimate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111:E1164-E1165.

Mokany, K., S. Prasad, and D. A. Westcott. 2014. Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change. Nature Communications 5.

Mokany, K., D. A. Westcott, S. Prasad, A. J. Ford, and D. J. Metcalfe. 2014. Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation and Management in Diverse Tropical Forests. Plos One 9.

Reside, A. E., J. A. Welbergen, B. L. Phillips, G. W. Wardell-Johnson, G. Keppel, S. Ferrier, S. E. Williams, and J. Vanderwal. 2014. Characteristics of climate change refugia for Australian biodiversity. Austral Ecology 39:887-897.

Rosauer, D. F., S. Ferrier, K. J. Williams, G. Manion, J. S. Keogh, and S. W. Laffan. 2014. Phylogenetic generalised dissimilarity modelling: a new approach to analysing and predicting spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of communities. Ecography 37:21-32.



Bateman, B. L., H. T. Murphy, A. E. Reside, K. Mokany, and J. VanDerWal. 2013. Appropriateness of full-, partial- and no-dispersal scenarios in climate change impact modelling. Diversity and Distributions 19:1224-1234.

Bell, K. L., T. A. Heard, G. Manion, S. Ferrier, and R. D. van Klinken. 2013. The role of geography and environment in species turnover: phytophagous arthropods on a Neotropical legume. Journal of Biogeography 40:1755-1766.

Blois, J. L., J. W. Williams, M. C. Fitzpatrick, S. Ferrier, S. D. Veloz, F. He, Z. Liu, G. Manion, and B. Otto-Bliesner. 2013. Modeling the climatic drivers of spatial patterns in vegetation composition since the Last Glacial Maximum. Ecography 36:460-473.

Blois, J. L., J. W. Williams, M. C. Fitzpatrick, S. T. Jackson, and S. Ferrier. 2013. Data from: Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Dryad.

Blois, J. L., J. W. Williams, M. C. Fitzpatrick, S. T. Jackson, and S. Ferrier. 2013. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110:9374-9379.

Fitzpatrick, M. C., N. J. Sanders, S. Normand, J.-C. Svenning, S. Ferrier, A. D. Gove, and R. R. Dunn. 2013. Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 280.

Guisan, A., R. Tingley, J. B. Baumgartner, I. Naujokaitis-Lewis, P. R. Sutcliffe, A. I. T. Tulloch, T. J. Regan, L. Brotons, E. McDonald-Madden, C. Mantyka-Pringle, T. G. Martin, J. R. Rhodes, R. Maggini, S. A. Setterfield, J. Elith, M. W. Schwartz, B. A. Wintle, O. Broennimann, M. Austin, S. Ferrier, M. R. Kearney, H. P. Possingham, and Y. M. Buckley. 2013. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecology Letters 16:1424-1435.

Jones, M. M., S. Ferrier, R. Condit, G. Manion, S. Aguilar, and R. Perez. 2013. Strong congruence in tree and fern community turnover in response to soils and climate in central Panama. Journal of Ecology 101:506-516.

Mokany, K., H. M. Burley, and D. R. Paini. 2013. beta Diversity contributes to ecosystem processes more than by simply summing the parts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110:E4057-E4057.

Mokany, K., T. D. Harwood, and S. Ferrier. 2013. Comparing habitat configuration strategies for retaining biodiversity under climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology 50:519-527.

Mokany, K., M. M. Jones, and T. D. Harwood. 2013. Scaling pairwise beta-diversity and alpha-diversity with area. Journal of Biogeography 40:2299-2309.

Overton, J. M., R. T. T. Stephens, and S. Ferrier. 2013. Net Present Biodiversity Value and the Design of Biodiversity Offsets. Ambio 42:100-110.

Pellissier, L., A. Espindola, J.-N. Pradervand, A. Dubuis, J. Pottier, S. Ferrier, and A. Guisan. 2013. A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties. Journal of Biogeography 40:1939-1946.

Pereira, H. M., S. Ferrier, M. Walters, G. N. Geller, R. H. G. Jongman, R. J. Scholes, M. W. Bruford, N. Brummitt, S. H. M. Butchart, A. C. Cardoso, N. C. Coops, E. Dulloo, D. P. Faith, J. Freyhof, R. D. Gregory, C. Heip, R. Hoeft, G. Hurtt, W. Jetz, D. S. Karp, M. A. McGeoch, D. Obura, Y. Onoda, N. Pettorelli, B. Reyers, R. Sayre, J. P. W. Scharlemann, S. N. Stuart, E. Turak, M. Walpole, and M. Wegmann. 2013. Essential Biodiversity Variables. Science 339:277-278.



Ferrier, S. 2012. Big-picture assessment of biodiversity change: scaling up monitoring without selling out on scientific rigour.

Lindenmayer, D. B., P. Gibbons, M. Bourke, M. Burgman, C. R. Dickman, S. Ferrier, J. Fitzsimons, D. Freudenberger, S. T. Garnett, C. Groves, R. J. Hobbs, R. T. Kingsford, C. Krebs, S. Legge, A. J. Lowe, R. McLean, J. Montambault, H. P. Possingham, J. Radford, D. Robinson, L. Smallbone, D. Thomas, T. Varcoe, M. Vardon, G. Wardle, J. Woinarski, and A. Zerger. 2012. Improving biodiversity monitoring. Austral Ecology 37:285-294.

Mackey, B., S. Berry, S. Hugh, S. Ferrier, T. D. Harwood, and K. J. Williams. 2012. Ecosystem greenspots: identifying potential drought, fire, and climate-change micro-refuges. Ecological Applications 22:1852-1864.

Mokany, K., T. D. Harwood, K. J. Williams, and S. Ferrier. 2012. Dynamic macroecology and the future for biodiversity. Global Change Biology 18:3149-3159.

Prober, S. M., D. W. Hilbert, S. Ferrier, M. Dunlop, and D. Gobbett. 2012. Combining community-level spatial modelling and expert knowledge to inform climate adaptation in temperate grassy eucalypt woodlands and related grasslands. Biodiversity and Conservation 21:1627-1650.

Scholes, R. J., M. Walters, E. Turak, H. Saarenmaa, C. H. R. Heip, E. O. Tuama, D. P. Faith, H. A. Mooney, S. Ferrier, R. H. G. Jongman, I. J. Harrison, T. Yahara, H. M. Pereira, A. Larigauderie, and G. Geller. 2012. Building a global observing system for biodiversity. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4:139-146.

Williams, K. J., L. Belbin, M. P. Austin, J. L. Stein, and S. Ferrier. 2012. Which environmental variables should I use in my biodiversity model? International Journal of Geographical Information Science 26:2009-2047.



Ferrier, S. 2011. Extracting More Value from Biodiversity Change Observations through Integrated Modeling. Bioscience 61:96-97.

Fitzpatrick, M. C., N. J. Sanders, S. Ferrier, J. T. Longino, M. D. Weiser, and R. Dunn. 2011. Forecasting the future of biodiversity: a test of single- and multi-species models for ants in North America. Ecography 34:836-847.

Leathwick, J. R., T. Snelder, W. L. Chadderton, J. Elith, K. Julian, and S. Ferrier. 2011. Use of generalised dissimilarity modelling to improve the biological discrimination of river and stream classifications. Freshwater Biology 56:21-38.

Mokany, K., and S. Ferrier. 2011. Predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity: a role for semi-mechanistic community-level modelling. Diversity and Distributions 17:374-380.

Mokany, K., T. D. Harwood, J. M. Overton, G. M. Barker, and S. Ferrier. 2011. Combining alpha- and beta-diversity models to fill gaps in our knowledge of biodiversity. Ecology Letters 14:1043-1051.

Mokany, K., and D. R. Paini. 2011. Dark diversity: adding the grey. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26:264-265.

Turak, E., S. Ferrier, T. Barrett, E. Mesley, M. Drielsma, G. Manion, G. Doyle, J. Stein, and G. Gordon. 2011. Planning for the persistence of river biodiversity: exploring alternative futures using process-based models. Freshwater Biology 56:39-56.



Ferrier, S., and M. Drielsma. 2010. Synthesis of pattern and process in biodiversity conservation assessment: a flexible whole-landscape modelling framework. Diversity and Distributions 16:386-402.

Lawson, B. E., S. Ferrier, G. Wardell-Johnson, R. J. S. Beeton, and D. V. Pullar. 2010. Improving the assessment of species compositional dissimilarity in a priori ecological classifications: evaluating map scale, sampling intensity and improvement in a hierarchical classification. Applied Vegetation Science 13:473-484.

Leathwick, J. R., A. Moilanen, S. Ferrier, and K. Julian. 2010. Complementarity-based conservation prioritization using a community classification, and its application to riverine ecosystems. Biological Conservation 143:984-991.

Mokany, K., A. J. Richardson, E. S. Poloczanska, S. Ferrier, and C. C. B. W. Grp. 2010. Uniting marine and terrestrial modelling of biodiversity under climate change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 25:550-551.

Mokany, K., and S. H. Roxburgh. 2010. The importance of spatial scale for trait-abundance relations. Oikos 119:1504-1514.

Roxburgh, S. H., and K. Mokany. 2010. On testing predictions of species relative abundance from maximum entropy optimisation. Oikos 119:583-590.

Seddon, J. A., T. W. Barratt, J. Love, M. Drielsma, S. V. Briggs, P. Gibbons, and S. Ferrier. 2010. Linking site and regional scales of biodiversity assessment for delivery of conservation incentive payments. Conservation Letters 3:415-424.