Wheat yield forecasts for Australia and Western Australia
Not only can the Graincast™ app help grain growers forecast their crop yield and soil moisture in individual paddocks or at whole of farm level, the smarts behind the app also enable us to forecast grain production at the regional and even national scales. Our methodology is based on peer reviewed science. It was successfully tested in 2017 and has been going since 2018. Like the app, Graincast’s™ forecasting capability is an Australian first.
Graincast’s™ key data comes from long term weather stations, soil characteristics, land use mapping and crop agronomy by using the cropping systems simulator APSIM® and statistical analysis of past annual yields data to forecast end of season wheat yields. Forecasts can be made any time from April to harvest and at any scale from paddock to shire to state to national.
More information about the national wheat yield forecasting and a historic evaluation of forecast results from 1987 to 2016 was presented at the Australian Agronomy Conference in Wagga Wagga, 25-29 August 2019. We invite you to click on the link: http://agronomyaustraliaproceedings.org/images/sampledata/2019/2019ASA_Hochman_Zvi_164.pdf
What Graincast™ can’t do
It should be noted that:
- The forecasts are based on a mix of known conditions to the date of publication and the probable conditions to harvest based on the previous 30 years.
- Extreme events such as severe frosts, heat shocks, floods and hail storms can have significant local implications that are not included in the forecasts and may result in lower than forecast yields if they are more widespread than usual.
- The forecasts do not account for large scale outbreaks of pests or diseases which may also result in lower than forecast yields.
The Graincast™ team run wheat yield forecasts fortnightly during the growing season and we will post forecasts for Australia as a whole and for Western Australia on this page. We’d love to hear your feedback about the information and how we’re presenting it. Please complete the form here, email us on email@example.com or tweet it using #Graincast to let us know what you think.