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Wheat yield forecasts for Australia and Western Australia

Not only can the Graincast™ app help grain growers forecast their crop yield and soil moisture in individual paddocks or at whole of farm level, the smarts behind the app also enable us to forecast grain production at the regional and even national scales. Our methodology is based on peer reviewed science and was successfully tested in 2017. Like the app, Graincast’s™ forecasting capability is an Australian first.


Graincast™ forecasting

Graincast’s™ key data comes from long term weather stations, soil characteristics, land use mapping and crop agronomy by using the cropping systems simulator APSIM® and statistical analysis of past annual yields data to forecast end of season wheat yields. Forecasts can be made any time from April to harvest and at any scale from paddock to shire to state to national.


Australia wide Graincast™ wheat yield forecast, 16 July 2019

Summary: This forecast for the 2019 wheat harvest is based on data as of 16 July 2019. Overall conditions for the grain zone so far are above average with earlier than average sowing opportunities and good available soil water. Median expectation for 2019 is 1.82 t/ha. As expected at this time of year, there is still considerable uncertainty about the outcome at harvest. However, the range of likely yield outcomes has improved over the last fortnight.

Australia’s national wheat yield Graincast™ forecasts
Long term average Median yield Chance of exceeding the long term average Median sowing date Median plant available soil water
1.74 t/ha 1.82 t/ha 63% 5 May 94 mm

 

wheat yield Aust 160719Each green band shows the Australia-wide wheat yield forecast at the fortnight indicated on the horizontal axis. They show the whole range of possible outcomes with the most probable indicated by the darkest green shading. The red line shows the expected median value for this year’s yield at the latest fortnight’s forecast. Compare the red line to the years 2006 (which was very low yielding), 2012 (had an average yield) and 2016 (a record yield).


  • Next forecast run: The next forecast will be for 30 July 2019.
  • Next forecast posted: 2 August 2019.

 

Western Australia Graincast™ wheat yield forecast, 16 July 2019

Summary: This forecast for the 2019 WA wheat harvest is based on data as of 16 July 2019. Conditions to date in Western Australia were above average overall. Median expectation for 2019 is 1.79 t/ha. Expectations for above average yields have remained the same over the last fortnight though there is still considerable uncertainty about the outcome at harvest. However, the risk of low yields has remained relatively low.

Western Australia’s wheat yield Graincast™ forecasts
Long term average Median yield Chance of exceeding the long term average Median sowing date Median plant available soil water
1.66 t/ha 1.79 t/ha 73% 9 June 128 mm

 


  • WA wheat yield 160719 Next forecast run: The next forecast will be for 30 July 2019.
  • Next forecast posted: 2 August 2019

What Graincast™ can’t do

It should be noted that:

  1. The forecasts are based on a mix of known conditions to the date of publication and the probable conditions to harvest based on the previous 30 years.
  2. Extreme events such as severe frosts, heat shocks, floods and hail storms can have significant local implications that are not included in the forecasts and may result in lower than forecast yields if they are more widespread than usual.
  3. The forecasts do not account for large scale outbreaks of pests or diseases which may also result in lower than forecast yields.

Your feedback

The Graincast™ team run wheat yield forecasts fortnightly during the growing season and we will post forecasts for Australia as a whole and for Western Australia on this page. We’d love to hear your feedback about the information and how we’re presenting it. Please complete the form here, email us on graincast@csiro.au or tweet it using #Graincast to let us know what you think.