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Wheat yield forecasts for Australia and Western Australia

Not only can the Graincast™ app help grain growers forecast their crop yield and soil moisture in individual paddocks or at whole of farm level, the smarts behind the app also enable us to forecast grain production at the regional and even national scales. Our methodology is based on peer reviewed science and was successfully tested in 2017. Like the app, Graincast’s™ forecasting capability is an Australian first.


Graincast™ forecasting

Graincast’s™ key data comes from long term weather stations, soil characteristics, land use mapping and crop agronomy by using the cropping systems simulator APSIM® and statistical analysis of past annual yields data to forecast end of season wheat yields. Forecasts can be made any time from April to harvest and at any scale from paddock to shire to state to national.

More information about the national wheat yield forecasting and a historic evaluation of forecast results from 1987 to 2016 was presented at the Australian Agronomy Conference in Wagga Wagga, 25-29 August 2019. We invite you to click on the link: http://agronomyaustraliaproceedings.org/images/sampledata/2019/2019ASA_Hochman_Zvi_164.pdf

 

Australia wide Graincast™ wheat yield forecast, 1 December 2019

Summary: This forecast for the 2019 wheat harvest is based on data up to 1 December 2019. Median expectation for 2019 is now 1.20 t/ha, which is 0.54 t/ha, or 31% below the 15 year average.  The national yield outcome for the 2019 harvest has been “locked-in” since 1 November as indicated by the shrinking bands around the median expected yield.

Australia’s national wheat yield Graincast™ forecasts
Long term average Median yield Chance of exceeding the long term average Median sowing date Median plant available soil water
1.74 t/ha 1.20 t/ha 0% 5 May 0 mm

Australian wheat yield forcast 1 December 2019

Each green band shows the Australia-wide wheat yield forecast at the fortnight indicated on the horizontal axis. They show the whole range of possible outcomes with the most probable indicated by the darkest green shading. The red line shows the expected median value for this year’s yield at the latest fortnight’s forecast. Compare the red line to the years 2006 (which was very low yielding), 2012 (had an average yield) and 2016 (a record yield).


  • Next forecast run: This is the last forecast for 2019.
  • Next forecast posted: 19 April 2020.

 

Western Australia Graincast™ wheat yield forecast, 1 December 2019

Summary: This forecast for the 2019 WA wheat harvest is based on data up to 1 December 2019. Median grain yield expectation for 2019 remains 1.42 t/ha, which is 0.24 t/ha, or 15% below the 15 year average. The WA yield outcome for the 2019 harvest has been “locked-in” since 1 November as indicated by the shrinking bands around the median expected yields.

Western Australia’s wheat yield Graincast™ forecasts
Long term average Median yield Chance of exceeding the long term average Median sowing date Median plant available soil water
1.66 t/ha 1.42 t/ha 0% 9 June 0 mm

WA wheat yield 1 December 2019

  • Next forecast run: This is the last forecast for 2019.
  • Next forecast posted: 19 April 2020

What Graincast™ can’t do

It should be noted that:

  1. The forecasts are based on a mix of known conditions to the date of publication and the probable conditions to harvest based on the previous 30 years.
  2. Extreme events such as severe frosts, heat shocks, floods and hail storms can have significant local implications that are not included in the forecasts and may result in lower than forecast yields if they are more widespread than usual.
  3. The forecasts do not account for large scale outbreaks of pests or diseases which may also result in lower than forecast yields.

Your feedback

The Graincast™ team run wheat yield forecasts fortnightly during the growing season and we will post forecasts for Australia as a whole and for Western Australia on this page. We’d love to hear your feedback about the information and how we’re presenting it. Please complete the form here, email us on graincast@csiro.au or tweet it using #Graincast to let us know what you think.