Researcher Profile: Dr Katrina Szetey – modelling with meaning

As a researcher who works across disciplines and knowledge systems, Dr Katrina Szetey is used to navigating the spaces between science, policy, and community. Her work brings together people with different perspectives – from scientists to government agencies to local communities – to think collectively about possible futures

“I’m a modeller and also a social scientist at the same time,” she says. “Which, I guess, is not really how many people think of modellers. They tend to imagine someone more analytical or numbers-based – which I am – but I also spend my whole time straddling different disciplines.”

This interdisciplinary perspective has defined Katrina’s work as a CERC Postdoctoral Fellow in the Valuing Sustainability Future Science Platform (VS FSP). Through the Future States project, she’s been exploring the future of Australia’s agro-ecosystems using a transdisciplinary approach that combines scenario development, co-production, and landscape-scale simulation modelling.

The project, which includes case studies in regional New South Wales and Western Australia, uses a state-and-transition modelling framework to explore possible trajectories of change in complex social-ecological systems. These systems include not only the natural environment but also the human actions and decisions that influence how landscapes evolve over time.

Working with SyncroSim and ST-Sim software, Katrina’s models simulate how agro-ecosystems might change under different scenarios – including the effects of climate change, policy shifts, or community-led innovation. Unlike traditional modelling approaches, which can feel abstract or top-down, these models are co-produced with those who live and work in the landscapes being studied.

“We build models with people who understand the systems from their lived experience,” says Katrina. “I’m not the expert in the landscape – my expertise is in bringing together that knowledge and creating a model out of it. I do the computational part, and then we overlay a scenario of the future, again co-produced with the people who know these regions best.”

To help participants imagine how the future might unfold in unexpected ways, Katrina partnered with artist collective Boho Interactive to co-design an immersive, interactive tabletop game. These playful tools draw on complex systems science and were used in workshops to spark creative thinking and imagination for scenario development.

“Our game took participants on a 100-year journey through a fictional township,” she says. “It covered environmental, social, and economic systems, with a bit of governance threaded through. There were mini-games – like herding a ping-pong ball sheep with a pump – but also really challenging questions, like whether the community would accept climate refugees when Sydney was underwater in the 2060s.”

The game acted as an extended warm-up to help participants think differently – and more expansively – about what their community’s future could look like. From there, the group identified ‘seeds’ of a better future – ideas like great dirt and great community – and used these to map out steps toward more sustainable and just futures.

Katrina’s next task was to synthesise the outputs into coherent scenario narratives. “I write an actual story of what that future looks like,” she explains. “And then we link the story back to the model – for example, if financial incentives for restoration are part of the scenario, we increase the probability of a transition to a more restored landscape state.”

These stories are more than academic exercises. They produce outputs that can support regional planning, land management, and policy development – including spatial maps that project what a landscape could look like under different assumptions.

“A lot of the work I do is known as decision support,” Katrina says. “It’s not predictive modelling – I’m very clear about that. It’s about exploring what might happen under different conditions. It’s a tool for thinking, and for helping people and institutions reflect on what choices they have.”

Throughout her fellowship, Katrina has been drawn to questions about the purpose and impact of modelling – particularly in the context of sustainability science, where justice and inclusion matter just as much as data and code.

At a VS FSP symposium in 2022, a conversation with fellow researcher Dr Delphi Ward sparked a deeper inquiry into the ethics of their modelling work. “We were talking about the ethics approvals we all go through as scientists who work with people, and I started wondering – should our modelling be subject to ethical review too? Not just in terms of consent or data use, but deeper questions like: are we asking the right questions? Are we using the right data responsibly? Could our work have unintended negative impacts on certain groups?”

This kernel of curiosity grew into a 3-hour workshop for CSIRO’s now-retired Digital Twin, Modelling and Simulation Community of Practice. Katrina and Delphi led a group of researchers in reflecting on how ethical principles might apply to their modelling practice.

“Participants told us they’d never thought about any of this before,” she says. “That conversation led to a collaborative paper, which is now under review, and we came up with a big list of recommendations – not just for modellers, but also for institutions and end users.”

In Katrina’s view, asking critical questions about how and why we model is more urgent than ever. “There’s that famous quote: ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ But a lot of people take models as gospel. I think we just need to put the brakes on sometimes and ask – why are we doing this? Is it the right use of resources? Are we doing it for the right reasons? Could we come to the same conclusions just by talking?”

As her fellowship comes to a close, Katrina reflects on how far she’s come – and how her work continues to evolve.

“This experience has helped me grow into a researcher who creates impact,” she says. “I’ve developed my technical skills – spatial modelling, scenario development, facilitation – but I’ve also grown my understanding of how to weave the technical and the social together. And the collaborations I’ve formed, across so many different areas, have been incredibly valuable. I hope they’ll continue well into the future.”