Foresight 12. Rise of Ocean Protection

Background

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  • Many fisheries are in crisis. Of those monitored by FAO >52% are deemed fully exploited, overexploited or depleted.
  • Public opinion and positions of government and industry is that wild places are tolerated only where commercial interests do not exist. There is a misconception that food from the oceans is free.
  • Despite the recent establishment of a number of large scale spatial closures (e.g. the addition of the Pitcairn MPA), only a fraction of the oceans is truly protected from industrial exploitation.
  • In 2014, global seafood consumption from aquaculture for the first time surpassed that of wild catch and capture production appears to have leveled off (FAO 2016).
  • Currently marine aquaculture accounts for approximately 1/3 of aquaculture production (FAO, 2016)
  • The public has a somewhat unfavourable view of aquaculture, especially open-ocean aquaculture (Froehlich et al. 2017).
  • General public are often not aware of what labeling means on seafood packaging, although the information is available.
  • There is increased tension and competition in disputed fishing regions, such as in the South China Sea.
  • Respected individuals are deeply concerned about loss of natural habitat. Some speak out and offer drastic solutions, like E.O. Wilson who proposes to designate half of Earth as a human-free natural reserve.

 

Scenario

  • After a period of often biased information and misinformation, trust in science as the only true measuring stick is regained. Information about the risks of losing genetic diversity and ecosystem functions becomes a campaign and is understood and appreciated by humanity at large.
  • The state of fisheries and extent of diminishing catch create headlines, are addressed through a variety of channels (discussions, citizen involvement, high-profile documentaries). Consequences are illustrated effectively to the public, such as though media attention on practices discredited due to their poor sustainability (e.g. shark finning) and activities in schools/universities.
  • Fisheries are reshaped by large scale reductions in capacity, bringing most (if not all) on to a sustainable footing. These fisheries are managed to very high ecosystem standards (e.g. no bycatch).
  • Less reliance on wild catch and further investment in aquaculture becomes a reality. Aquaculture (sustained and eco-certified) becomes the only accepted source for fish/seafood by many large distribution companies and certification bodies.
  • Marine aquaculture industry rapidly expands to meet consumption needs of marine species. Improved sustainability is made possible but widespread uptake of feeds that do not use fishmeal and multi-trophic level integrated aquaculture systems, which have a no-waste policy (with the wastes of one species being used as the uptake basis for other species – such as finfish – mussel – algae combinations).
  • Public is educated through media and scientific facts to the benefits of farmed seafood and is aware of the role they can play by choosing seafood items carrying eco-certification labels (e.g. not all aquaculture products may be sustainable).
  • Ultimately (beyond the time frame of this scenario), human food requirements become independent of the natural environment and are met by synthetic meat production and similar manufactured sources.
  • Our desire for wild places increases as their significance is better understood, with a consequent increase in public support for more MPAs.
  • On the back of the ratification of UN High Seas spatial management agreements, a global governing body is established for governance of MPAs.
  • Conflict around food sources in the former fishery regions diminished.

Indicators: How would we know this was “starting to happen”?

  1. Large no-fishing protected areas exceed 20% of Australia’s coastline (currently <2%)
  2. Global voluntary reduction of fisheries and catches of 25%
  3. Sale of aquaculture products is considerably higher (75% higher) than wild-caught seafood
  4. A global ban of wild-caught seafood in >25% “developed” (MEDC) countries.
  5. Recovery of >50% pelagic species previously threatened by fishing (e.g. oceanic whitetip shark, leatherback turtles, etc)
  6. Commercial production of synthetic meat and seafood for a wide range of flavours and textures
  7. Sales of synthetic fish exceed wild caught (by value)
  8. Sales of synthetic fish exceed wild caught (by volume)

Scoring of indicators

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