Foresight 14. Astronaut effect

Background

Will public space travel grow co-operation on Earth?

  • Astronauts are reported as experiencing a cognitive shift after seeing Earth from space and images such as the famous “Blue Marble” (taken in 1972) have also helped change consciousness[1] – called the “overview effect” it occurs when humans have sight of the big picture – a fragile beautiful planet hanging in space – connected and bigger than the fragmented issues on the surface. This also emphasizes the important things we need from the planet, namely clean air and water. But there is the associated danger that the blue marble will look good from space regardless and hence could hide the scale of destruction. Or that there are unanticipated consequences from disaster tourism due to seeing impacts such as the loss of rainforest.
  • Citizen space exploration is just around the corner – in the next decade this could include regular tourism flights to stratospheric heights, taking a walk in space, flying around the moon, orbiting the Earth and longer term trips to the moon or another planet. This will be accessible to wealthy individuals (and since half the world’s wealth are in the hands of 1% of the population this can have a big impact), but will change their view of the world and their wealth and celebrity status initially will help spread a new consciousness of seeing our planet as a fragile oasis that we need to work together to safeguard (or find a new planet to colonise)
  • In the same way as air travel has fundamentally changed the way the world operates, space travel will fundamentally shift thinking and functioning on Earth, in part because everyone participating will be presented with a unified picture of the planet and in many cases its inequities will become apparent (astronauts report this being particularly evident at night, but are also struck at how on this stunning oasis there are a billion people who don’t have clean water to drink for example; deforestation of the Amazon is evident etc). There is though a risk that some wealthy entrepreneurs will see greater opportunities to reap more benefits from the planet.
  • People living in (future) space settlements temporarily or permanently will change their view of the planet and appreciate that the Earth hangs in a harsh space environment, highlighting the need to safeguard our life-supporting planet. There is the danger though that this could make one feel powerless too, and thereby counter the “positive” of space travel.
  • Advancing space travel and space science will also advance efforts to protect Earth from future cosmic collisions (asteroids, comets, Near Earth Objects NEOs). The quickest shift in human thinking and action will occur if there is an identified threat from outer space that could seriously impact our planet and countries and individuals have to work together to seek solutions.
  • Virgin Galactic reports that only 558 people have been to space, but they are opening space to the rest of us, and as with other space exploration companies (eg SpaceX), expect to take off during this coming decade, with hundreds signed up already. Given the rate at which technology evolves and automobile and aircraft travel developed, space tourism may be fairly routine in the next 10-20 years, and space settlements in the next 20-50 years. Whereas space travel in the near future is likely to be more of a “fun” activity, it will support ongoing development of space settlements which will likely be seen as both viable housing options and “life boats” for the planet, in addition to underpinning longer term potential colonisation of other planets.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blue_Marble

Scenario

  • Individuals, then communities, schools, politicians and countries start shifting their exploitative extractive views of Earth and its resources, particularly in the open sea
  • This cognitive shift engenders better cooperation between nations, who increasingly see the Earth as a fragile system connected by oceans and with finite resources, and start working together to solve global problems
  • At the same time there is a growing need for science to support space travel and exploration, extend exploration of the vast oceans, seek solutions to protecting Earth from NEOs, increased understanding of Earth structure and functioning, greater conservation awareness, efforts to mitigate climate change, research new ocean resources and ways for the oceans to support life on Earth
  • The increased support for science combined with support for safeguarding our planet leads to global efforts to mitigate climate change, introduce green technologies and ultimately to slow and reverse anthropogenic climate change.
  • The alternative negative view is that it accelerates use of non-renewable energy sources, further accelerating climate change and growing inequities on our planet

Indicators: How would we know this is starting to happen?

  1. Booming space tourism and space development businesses globally
  2. Increased funding (at least triple 2018 level) offered for space science and technology
  3. Australia increases engagement and participation in space science (triple 2018 current levels)
  4. Rise in popularity of early space explorers and tourists, with increased media coverage and some of these individuals in influential positions
  5. Call from space tourists for more environmental protection on Earth

Scoring of indicators

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Additional reading

Voski, A. (2020). The ecological significance of the overview effect: Environmental attitudes and behaviours in astronauts. Journal of Environmental Psychology 70: 101454.