Foresight 1. Rationing air travel

Background

Aviation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse emissions in the transport sector, contributing 3-8% of the world’s total emissions, and air travel is growing at 4-5% per year. Jurisdictional issues have meant that aviation emissions are not covered by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which asks nations to do their fair share to cut emissions. In 2016, the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) released a draft resolution that would regulate aviation emissions on a global basis [1]. Under this proposed market-based mechanism, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), countries’ airlines are given allowances to emit carbon, and if they exceed their allowances then they must buy offsets from other sectors [3]. If ratified, it won’t come into power for another decade [3]. In Australia, the per-capita consumption of aviation fuel has more than doubled since the 1980s. We now use, on average 2.2 barrels (or 347 litres) of jet fuel per person per year [2]. Electric planes remain decades away, weighed down by batteries that can’t deliver nearly as much power per kilo as jet fuel. [3]

Scenario

  1. Australia signs up to the new ICAO resolution, and begins to restrict air travel, starting with government departments.
  2. Scientists have long been criticized for their high carbon footprint. For instance, a return trip from Europe to Australia is the per capita equivalent of 4.5 tonnes of carbon (cf average global per capita emissions of ~ 1 tonne [3]).
  3. Science agencies join this national initiative, and scientists are required to cut air travel by 90% and work to a carbon budget

Indicators: How would we know this was “starting to happen”?

  1. Australian government signs up to an ambitious emissions reduction program, which could be air travel-specific, or overall and inclusive or air travel.
  2. Australian government signals it will require this emission reduction for departments and science agencies.
  3. An Australian science agency begins restricting staff air travel on the basis of emmisions reduction
  4. 25% of scientific societies sign international agreement to limit international conferences
  5. Social pressure on scientists from other sectors leads to publication of personal carbon footprints by at least 25% of scientists
  6. 25% of formerly face-to-face conferences become online only conferences

Scoring of indicators

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Additional reading

Why carbon emission policies won’t work for air travel – The Conversation July 2018

Universities can lead with reduced air travel

The carbon footprint of global tourism (Lenzen et al. 2018) – Nature

How to de-carbonize conferences – Nature July 2020

Sustainable aviation fuel is the only way forward if we want to keep flying. The Guardian February 2021.