Foresight 11. Aquaculture divided

Background

Tasmania has a long history of community division over environmental issues: think Lake Pedder, Franklin Dam, forestry, pulp mills and the Supertrawler. There are signs that the Salmon Aquaculture Industry, recently seen as providing many benefits Tasmania needs, is becoming a similarly devise community issue. While this sector is already the most valuable seafood sector in Australia, our research tells us that trust is at the heart of the problems currently faced. It is now apparent that a key challenge for the salmon industry is to demonstrate corporate social responsibility and maintain Social License to Operate (SLO). Gunningham et al. (2004) define SLO as a suite of demands and expectations that affect a business and emerge through the interactions of that business with various societal stakeholders, and Kelly et al. (2017) note it involves tacit permission that communities and society may grant for industry or government to utilise or control a resource. Research suggests that social license will be supported by distributed and credible knowledge co-production (Leith et al. 2014).

A salmon aquaculture industry that can realise the potential growth in Tasmania, is expected to result in more jobs, regional boost to the economy, greater food security and advances in environmentally-friendly aquaculture technology. Opponents, however, point to potential negative side-effects on community lifestyle and landscape: transformation of portions of what is seen as a pristine coastline to a developed one, and negative impacts on the surrounding benthic ecosystems, changes in beachfront housing prices and displacing other marine users from aquaculture-zoned areas. Thus, if future aquaculture development remains hampered by SLO (and other) issues, major negative impacts on underperforming regional economies may arise, and additional substantial conflict between conservation and industry groups may occur with opponents unable to find common ground.

Scenario

  • Scenario 1 (harmony and cooperation)
    • Better communication of the science behind the proposed development of the Industry proves to be a game changer by alleviating community concerns and bringing people together to expand a clean green Industry, strengthen the economy and increase jobs in regional areas.
    • Negotiated acceptance of aquaculture development in Tasmania is the single biggest thing that makes a difference to job creation, sustainable food production, and community harmony. Essentially boosting industry growth but not at the expense of public sentiment and environmental health.
  • Scenario 2 (conflict and decline)
    • Aquaculture development heads down the same divisive path as other environmental issues in Tasmania with profound negative effects on regional growth and job creation.

Indicators: How would we know this was “starting to happen”?

  • Scenario 1 (harmony and cooperation)
    1. Reduced conflict between aquaculture industry and community, as evidenced for example by reduction in media and advocacy focused on the conflicts and disagreements, and refocussed instead on supporting development
    2. CSIRO encouraged to play an objective trusted science role in credible knowledge co-production affecting other development initiatives
    3. CSIRO in its role as Australia’s trusted advisor, develops an independent SLO fact checker for Aquaculture in Tasmania, providing clear unbiased information that addresses the concerns of stakeholders and generates a trusted platform for further dialogue.
    4. Evidence of compromise and ecofriendly, clean green adaptations in aquaculture ventures
    5. Regional growth of aquaculture industry and jobs
    6. Criticism of need for SLO shifts to other industries
    7. Increased cooperation in constructive dialogue and partnerships
  • Scenario 2 (conflict and decline)
    1. Escalating conflict between aquaculture industry and community
    2. Stalemate in terms of industry growth and job creation
    3. CSIRO not perceived as playing the role of trusted source for supporting objective decision-making regarding whether or not SLO should be granted

Scoring of indicators

Project team only – “score” this scenario (requires login): Click to continue.