Japan’s demand for hydrogen: review of markets and consumer demand

December 13th, 2021

R&D Focus Areas:
Hydrogen market development, Export potential

Lead Organisation:

Not applicable


Start date:
July 2021

Completion date:
June 2022

Key contacts:
Research Scientist Lavinia Poruschi – lavinia.poruschi@csiro.au
Senior Economist David A. Fleming-Munoz – david.fleming@csiro.au

CSIRO – Responsible Innovation Future Science Platforms

Project total cost:
Not applicable

Project summary description:
The project work was guided by the question: “What characteristics of the Japanese market will create demand for hydrogen energy and how is demand creation matched by Australia’s emerging export industry?”

This initiative steps from the desire to create a detailed analysis of the socio-economic drivers of hydrogen demand. Anticipation of this demand can contribute to the responsible innovation of Australia’s hydrogen energy industry during a changing global economy. The social acceptance and physical barriers of the proposed 2030 fuel mix are analysed in light of Japan’s ambitious decarbonisation targets. Through a future development scenarios approach, an opportunity for hydrogen is envisaged to plug the envisaged ‘energy gap’ left by nuclear and renewable energy.

On the one hand, four scenarios were developed to study how the initial demand for hydrogen/ammonia from Japan may develop. This revealed that Japan is at a stark crossroads regarding energy sources to meet its energy needs. Two development pathways according to which Japan could be meeting and exceeding by several orders of magnitude the 2030 hydrogen demand targets are identified.

On the other hand, a bottom-up approach to evaluating Australia’s supply potential, finds the nation is showing signs of emerging as a large future global hydrogen supplier. This critical review of current export-oriented hydrogen projects in Australia shows the country is already developing significant capacity to meet Japan’s hydrogen needs by 2030 and potentially play a substantial role in global demand.

Related publications and key links:
Poruschi et al. [under preparation – internal review within CSIRO]. Anticipating Japan’s hydrogen demand: a scenario’s approach to identify opportunities and barriers. To be submitted to Energy Policy Journal

Higher degree studies supported:
Not applicable


Updated: June 2022