An integrative modelling approach to understanding human responses to hydrogen energy technologies
R&D Focus Areas:
Social licence; Communication and engagement; Computational modelling
Lead Organisation:
CSIRO
Partners:
The University of Queensland
Status:
Active
Start date:
January 2023
Completion date:
July 2026
Key contacts:
Lead investigator: Daniel Herr – d.herr@uq.net.au
Project leader/supervisor: Mitchell Scovell – mitchell.scovell@csiro.au
Supervisor: Slava Vaisman – r.vaisman@uq.edu.au
Funding:
AUD$60,000 – Responsible Innovation Future Science Platform
AUD$118,000 – Hydrogen Energy Systems Future Science Platform
Project total cost:
AUD$178,000
Project summary description:
Past research has shown that many theories of human behaviour help to explain people’s acceptance of energy technologies. There is, however, currently a lack of research drawing on this research to develop models for predicting future human responses to technological developments.
This project aims to fill this gap by using knowledge from the fields of social and computer sciences to explain and predict likely human responses to future hydrogen technology developments.
The primary objective of the project is to create and test comprehensive models of human behaviour, enhancing our ability to understand and predict human responses to the emerging hydrogen industry. With such knowledge, decision-makers should be able to better anticipate and address potential concerns before problems arise. Beyond its practical problem-solving focus, the project also seeks to advance fundamental knowledge in the realms of social and computer sciences and to promote more conceptual and methodological rigor in the quantitative social science and the machine learning literatures.
The findings will also inform relevant stakeholders (e.g., industry, government, and policymakers) about the important factors that influence hydrogen acceptance and demand, and how to best address factors that may impede the successful development of the industry.
Finally, the findings will help to ensure that hydrogen energy technologies are implemented in a way that aligns with community values and expectations.
Findings to date
The project has developed a theoretically informed Bayesian Network to model the psychological factors that influence community acceptance of a local hydrogen hub. Using this model, we demonstrate the implications of intervening on various factors in the model (e.g., changing risk perception) and how this changes local acceptance rates.
The project has also worked on methods for dealing with measurement error in statistical models aimed at understanding degradation processes. This new modelling approach has implications for modelling a range of degradation processes (e.g., attitude change over time).
Related publications and key links:
D. Z. Herr, R. Vaisman, M. Scovell and N. Kinaev, “On Alternative Monte Carlo Methods for Parameter Estimation in Gamma Process Models with Intractable Likelihood,” in IEEE Transactions on Reliability, doi: 10.1109/TR.2024.3381126.
CSIRO ‘Future Science Platforms: Hydrogen Energy Systems’: An integrative modelling approach to understanding human responses to hydrogen energy technologies – Hydrogen Energy Systems (csiro.au)
Higher degree studies supported:
One PhD student is supported by this project.
Reviewed: August 2024