Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) forecasts
The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) methodology is designed to generate automated 24-hour forecasts, updated hourly. Its primary purpose is to rapidly identify new fire activity and generate timely smoke intelligence to State Control Centres for operational decision-making.
RUC enhances the AQFx system by transitioning from bi-daily national forecasts at 9-km resolution to hourly updated forecasts at an effective 3-km resolution. This is achieved through the following process:
- Fire detection: Himawari-8 geostationary satellite observations, updated every 10 minutes, are scanned hourly to identify new fire clusters.
- Fire Behaviour Forecasting:A fire spread model—either Phoenix or SPARK—is run to simulate 24-hour fire behaviour and estimate smoke emissions.
- Smoke Transport Modelling: A ‘lite’ version of AQFx (in tracer mode) is used to rapidly forecast smoke transport and associated uncertainty.
- Forecast Integration and Visualisation: The new fire smoke data is integrated into the current AQFx ensemble forecast and visualised through platforms such as AQVx or other visualisation systems.
- Forecast Adjustment:If subsequent satellite observations indicate fire suppression, the smoke forecast is downgraded accordingly.
This dynamic and responsive forecasting approach significantly improves the timeliness and relevance of smoke intelligence, supporting more effective emergency response and public health protection.
Example of RUC operation during the February 2024 Grampians fires in Victoria.
In this example, hotspots were detected by the 13-14 hr cycle, which triggered a Phoenix ensemble run followed by the AQFx chemical transport model. The forecast smoke plume is shown in the top right.
The standard AQFx forecast (bottom right) is based on fire detections from the previous day and hence does not include the Grampians fires.
RUC is designed to automatically update the AQFx forecast within a few hours of hotspot detection.