AQFx performance assessment

August 19th, 2022

During the 2019/2020 bushfire season the operational AQFx system was applied beyond its tested capabilities. As part of the national AQFx prototype project we are looking into the AQFx smoke forecasting performance for the 2019/2020 bushfire season. We are examining and evaluating all aspects of existing AQFx capability. These include

  • fire propagation modelling,
  • smoke emission calculations,
  • smoke plume rise estimations,
  • smoke transport,
  • smoke chemical transformation accuracy 

This is an open collaborative process that will be used to identify specific AQFx modules which may need improving to increase the robustness and accuracy of the smoke forecasts. 

Here is a preliminary assessment of the AQFx capability using a case study of a smoke impact on Melbourne in the second week of January 2020.