AQFx performance assessment

December 4th, 2023

During the 2019/2020 bushfire season the operational AQFx system was applied beyond its tested capabilities. As part of the national AQFx prototype project we looked into the AQFx smoke forecasting performance for the 2019/2020 bushfire season. We examined and evaluated different aspects of the existing AQFx capability. These included:

  • fire propagation modelling,
  • smoke emission calculations,
  • smoke plume rise estimations,
  • smoke transport,
  • smoke chemical transformation accuracy 

The on-going performance assessment of the AQFx prototype system is an open collaborative process that will be used to identify specific AQFx modules which may need improving to increase the robustness and accuracy of the smoke forecasts. 

Here is a preliminary assessment of the AQFx capability using a case study of a smoke impact on Melbourne in the second week of January 2020.