AQFx features

AQFx prototype project – 2020-2025

The 2019-2020 bushfire season pushed the operational AQFx system beyond its original design limits, highlighting the need for enhanced smoke forecasting capabilities under extreme conditions. In response, the AQFx prototype project was launched to explore the system’s strengths and limitations and to develop targeted improvements for greater forecast accuracy and resilience. This project focuses on advancing the science behind smoke forecasting by integrating new research modules and technologies. These enhancements aim to improve the robustness of AQFx forecasts, especially during periods of intense bushfire smoke exposure.

A key component of the project is the delivery of accurate, near real-time smoke intelligence—combining observational data and advanced modelling. To support this, we are expanding the capacity of air quality monitoring networks across selected states and territories by deploying a network of low-cost particle sensors, and enhancing satellite-based smoke detection algorithms across the Australian region

Smoke risk management in Australia is a shared responsibility—across federal, state, and territory governments, as well as individuals and households. A central goal of the project is to ensure that high-quality smoke exposure information is accessible to the public. This will be achieved through integration with a state-of-the-art, cloud-based app, developed in coordination with key stakeholders.

Key Research Activities

The AQFx prototype project is structured around these core activities:

• Performance Assessment – Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of AQFx forecasts across a range of environmental and fire conditions
• Smoke Observation Network – Expanding and enhancing both ground-based and satellite observation capabilities 
• Data Assimilation and Blending – Integrating multiple data sources to improve forecast precision
• Cloud-Based Communication Tools – Delivering user-friendly, real-time smoke and air quality forecasts through platforms like AQVx and AirRater
• Rapid Update Cycle Forecasts – Developing faster, more adaptive forecasting capabilities to respond to rapidly changing fire and smoke conditions
• AQEx Evaluation Framework – Implementing a comprehensive evaluation package to assess AQFx performance using a suite of continuous, and categorical forecast verification metrics