AQFx performance assessment

During the 2019-2020 bushfire season, the operational AQFx system was applied beyond its tested capabilities. As part of the national AQFx prototype project, we conducted a detailed evaluation of the system’s performance during this period, focusing on its ability to forecast smoke under extreme conditions. Our assessment examined several key components of the AQFx system, including:

• Fire propagation modelling
• Smoke emission calculations
• Smoke plume rise estimations
• Smoke transport dynamics
• Chemical transformation of smoke pollutants 

This ongoing performance evaluation is a collaborative and transparent process, aimed at identifying specific AQFx modules that may benefit from refinement to improve the accuracy and robustness of smoke forecasts. 

Here is a preliminary assessment of the AQFx capability using a case study of a significant smoke event affecting Melbourne in the second week of January 202.

Introducing FirePixels: Enhancing Smoke Emission Estimates

To improve the accuracy of smoke emissions forecasting, we developed FirePixels—a novel methodology that integrates satellite-based top-down, fuels-based bottom-up, and prognostic fire spread modelling approaches. FirePixels dynamically selects the most suitable method based on the quality and availability of input data, enabling more precise estimates of burned area and fuel consumption.

This flexible and data-driven framework significantly enhances the accuracy of smoke emission calculations, supporting more reliable forecasts and contributing to better air quality management and public health protection.