The perils of predicting pest insect distributions

Date

Tuesday 17 May 2016

Time

12:30-13:30

Venue

CSIRO: 44 Bellenden St, Crace

Speaker

Dr. Matt Hill  (CSIRO Agriculture, Canberra, Australia).

Synopsis

Invasive insect species comprise some of the most recognised vectors of human disease, and cause billions of dollars in direct agricultural losses through reduced yields and transmission of plant pathogens, and indirect losses including increased application of pesticides and trade. Predicting the distribution, spread and impacts of invasive insects is thus an important challenge and is required to inform geographically-targeted policies in order to prevent new invasions and manage existing invasive species. This is especially important for species that are able to rapidly adapt to new environmental conditions and alter their niche requirements. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have become increasingly popular to predict the potential geographic range of invasive species, through correlating the known distribution of a species with environmental variables across those known localities. However, as this approach only quantifies something close to the realised niche, the ability of ENMs calibrated on the native range to accurately predict the invaded range heavily relies on the assumptions of adequately sampled distribution data and niche conservatism (the niche remains unchanged during invasion). In this talk I will present a comparative study of invasive insect and mite species for which different niche change hypotheses have been proposed using ENMs, and also include some species that display adaptation in ecophysiological traits that correlate with niche change. I will then demonstrate through case studies of important pest species how ENMs together with physiological experiments may be used to gain insight into the processes behind niche changes during invasion.

Speaker bio

Matt Hill completed his PhD at the University of Melbourne in 2013 looking at how climate change may affect a range of different grains pests in Australia. Following this he spent three years at Stellenbosch University in South Africa broadly investigating invasive insect species, particularly fruit flies which are highly threatening to the local economy. Matt has now begun a postdoctoral fellowship working on a GRDC funded project with Sarina Macfadyen to generate new knowledge for pest and beneficial invertebrates in grain production systems. His broad research interests include how biological invasions and climate change will alter pest distributions and outbreaks, and thus challenge agricultural production and food security into the future.

 This is a public seminar.

No visitor pass is required for non-CSIRO attendees going to Lecture Theatre Building 1.