Approaches we use

“The trouble with our times is that the future is no longer what it used to be.” (Paul Valery, 1937 in Duarte 2014)

The Ocean Futures team uses a range of approaches, including.

  1. Historical pattern analysis
  2. Foresighting
  3. Models
  4. Workshops and surveys

1. Historical pattern analysis

Insight into the future can be gleaned from an understanding of the past. Historical data, such as catch data, can be used to calibrate models (e.g. ecosystem models) that are in turn used to forecast possible futures. The Ocean Futures team has assembled a database of Australian historical catch data that is available for use (see Apex database tool).

Useful reading

  1. Lotze, H. K. and B. Worm (2009). Historical baselines for large marine animals. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24(5): 254-262.
  2. Peck, M. A., C. Arvanitidis, M. Butensch€on, D. M. Canu, E. Chatzinikolaou, A. Cucco, P. Domenici, J. A. Fernandes, L. Gasche, K. B. Huebert, M. Hufnagl, M. C. Jones, A. Kempf, F. Keyl, M. Maar, S. Mahevas, P. Marchal, D. Nicolas, J. K. Pinnegar, E. Rivot, S. Rochette, A. F. Sell, M. Sinerchia, C. Solidoro, P. J. Somerfield, L. R. Teal, M. Travers-Trolet and K. E. v. d. Wolfshaar (2016). Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.05.019.

2. Foresighting

The Ocean Futures team uses foresighting approaches to develop our own skills, as well as prepare for alternative marine futures. These foresights are speculative “views of the future”. We use these to encourage thoughtful dialogue about the  range of potential futures we might encounter. Foresights page

“Foresighting” is a term associated with “Future Studies” to describe activities such as:

  • critical thinking concerning long-term developments,
  • debate and effort to create wider participatory democracy,
  • shaping the future, especially by influencing public policy.

Foresighting draws on approaches used in long-range and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futures studies. Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight (e.g. Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc.) – are based on approaches in the Futures field. Foresight is concerned with futures that are usually at least 5-10 years away and is action-oriented (the planning link) and thus will rarely consider perspectives beyond a few decades (though in areas such as marine spatial planning, or major marine infrastructure decisions are concerned, the planning horizon may be longer). We examine alternative pathways, not just what is currently believed to be the most likely future. Foresighting exercises may lead to development of multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating positive visions, success scenarios, and aspirational futures for marine systems.

Useful reading

  1. Raskin, P. D. (2008). World lines: A framework for exploring global pathways. Ecological Economics 65: 461-470.
  2. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight framework process. Foresight 5(3): 10-21.

3. Models – a window to the future

Models can shed light on the technological, environmental and policy implications of coming changes or regulatory decisions

Models are an excellent means of synthesizing information and understanding. This can then enable prioritization regarding (i) collection of additional information and (ii) additional research.  Models also have an important role in planning for the future, where conditions may depart from those experienced in the past, a range of options are possible, and goals can vary.

Even when people agree on the broad goals, describing the details can lead to tensions given competing or conflicting objectives. Some of this tension comes from the flawed assumption that we all share the same mental model of how the world works. A tangible model can focus discussion and alleviate frustration.

Our modelling approaches may never capture all the uncertainty and surprises of the future, but they can provide insights on the strengths, weaknesses and unintended consequences of proposed actions and alternative futures. We use a range of tools from qualitative to quantitative, covering single species, entire biological communities, and the human system that relies on the ocean.

In our “futures” work, we recognize that humans instinctively use mental models to guide themselves through their daily tasks and make long-term decisions. We seek to build on these mental concepts of the way the world works. Internal rigour is added by a formal, often mathematical, framework – making sure that the logic and internal dynamics are consistent. Our models can tested under alternative assumptions around driving forces (e.g. economic demand, climate change) to see how different futures might unfold. This model-based approach to informing decision-making has long been used in natural resource management such as fisheries and forestry, and we seek to build on this foundation.

Useful reading

  1. Fulton, E. A., J. S. Link, I. C. Kaplan, M. Savina-Rolland, P. Johnson, C. Ainsworth, P. Horne, R. Gorton, R. J. Gamble, A. D. M. Smith and D. C. Smith (2011). Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish and Fisheries 12: 171-188.
  2. Plagányi, E. E., J. D. Bell, R. H. Bustamante, J. M. Dambacher, D. Dennis, C. M. Dichmont, L. Dutra, E. A. Fulton, A. J. Hobday, E. I. van Putten, F. Smith, A. D. M. Smith and S. Zhou (2011). Modelling climate change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research 62: 1132-1147.
  3. Plaganyi, E. E. and A. J. Hobday (2015). Using marine models to road-test climate-smart management responses and strategies and prepare decision makers. 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast, Australia, 29 Nov to 4 Dec 2015. www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2015.

4. Workshops and surveys

Insight into perspectives and expectations from different stakeholder groups is critical in understanding and projecting alternative futures. For example, our team surveyed recreational fishers to explore how they might adapt to changes (van Putten et al. 2017).  Workshops and surveys can be used to gather information and develop conceptual models. They have also been used to explore the views of society about the year 2050( see 2050 Focus Group Feedback_v2), based on workshops in Hobart, Melbourne and Canberra in 2012 and 2013 (see also Boschetti et al 2015).

Useful reading

  1. Boschetti, F., E. A. Fulton and N. J. Grigg (2015). Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050. Sustainability 7: 222-247; doi:10.3390/su7010222.
  2. van Putten, I. E., S. Jennings, A. J. Hobday, R. H. Bustamante, L. X. C. Dutra, S. Frusher, E. A. Fulton, M. Haward, E. É. Plagányi, L. Thomas and G. Pecl (2017). Recreational fishing in a time of rapid ocean change. Marine Policy 76: 167-177 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.11.034.

 

5. Historical Data Analysis

Insight into the future can be gleaned from an understanding of the past. Historical data, such as catch data, can be used to calibrate models (e.g. ecosystem models) that are in turn used to forecast possible futures. The Ocean Futures team has assembled a database of Australian historical catch data that is available for use (Apex database tool).

Ocean Futures APEX application – Browse statistical fisheries data from 1901 onwards. Log in with user “oceanfutures” and password “Ocean14”.

This dataset consists of Australian commonwealth and state catch records, by species for a wide range of fisheries. Information in the annual Australian Fisheries Statistics, published by ABARE these reports provide detailed production, fishery profiles and gear, employment and trade data in this series since 1991. Prior to that the annual Commonwealth Australian Bureau of Statistics provide statistical information from Federation in 1901 to the present, including data on the volume and value of production from state and Commonwealth fisheries. They also provide data on the volume and value of Australian fisheries trade (export/imports) by destination, source and product;  profiles of Commonwealth and state fisheries and state aquaculture covering selected species, fishing method and number of licence holders is also covered; employment; fisheries revenue and post-harvest information.

Useful reading

  1. Lotze, H. K. and B. Worm (2009). Historical baselines for large marine animals. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24(5): 254-262.
  2. Peck, M. A., C. Arvanitidis, M. Butensch€on, D. M. Canu, E. Chatzinikolaou, A. Cucco, P. Domenici, J. A. Fernandes, L. Gasche, K. B. Huebert, M. Hufnagl, M. C. Jones, A. Kempf, F. Keyl, M. Maar, S. Mahevas, P. Marchal, D. Nicolas, J. K. Pinnegar, E. Rivot, S. Rochette, A. F. Sell, M. Sinerchia, C. Solidoro, P. J. Somerfield, L. R. Teal, M. Travers-Trolet and K. E. v. d. Wolfshaar (2016). Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.05.019.