We are living in an era of rapid technology fuelled change. The explosion in device connectivity, data volumes, digital communication, e-commerce, computing power and overall internet use is reinventing the landscape for governments, companies, societies and individuals. The all-pervasive digital economy of the future will profoundly impact the vast majority of companies, governments and societies worldwide. Some jobs will disappear, new jobs will be created. Some existing markets will extinguish, new ones will emerge. Fortunes will be won and lost. The roles and capabilities of government will shift into new territory. Comprehending forthcoming change and taking proactive action is increasingly important. As a consequence CSIRO’s Data61 has established a research team dedicated to helping organisations understand forthcoming change and make wise strategic decisions.
This report examines plausible futures for jobs and employment markets in Australia over the coming twenty years. The narrative of the future is based on a structured process of strategic foresight which identifies megatrends and scenarios.
While digital technology disruption is an important driver, the report covers a comprehensive range of technological, economic, social, environmental and geopolitical trends. The aim is to inform strategic choices of governments, companies, communities and individuals in planning for economic growth, productive industries, rewarding careers, cohesive communities and improved quality of life.
The implications of this report are that workforce transitions – how individuals move from one job to another and how industries move from one labour market structure to another – are crucial. Although change is inevitable, future destinations are not. Based on this narrative of the future, individuals, communities, companies and governments can identify and implement transition pathways that achieve better outcomes.
This report is the product of a joint project undertaken by CSIRO and TAFE Queensland which investigates how the VET sector can best support Australia’s future workforce in the context of evolving skill needs and forthcoming digital disruption. TAFE Queensland, with over 130 years of experience in delivering VET, and CSIRO as a key contributor to the future direction of Australia, are well placed to deliver an insightful piece of work that will support further discussion of this issue.
The report provides a VET focused analysis of the trends influencing education, including changing demand for skills in the Australian economy and future models of delivering education. Our analysis draws upon reviews of the literature, modelling of employment data and interviews with experts in the sector. Based on these analyses, we identify ways in which the VET sector might adapt both its course content and the delivery of training to ensure that workers are well-prepared to contribute to Australia’s future social and economic prosperity.
This study analyses data from a longitutinal study of withdrawals from account-based pensions from superannuation savings to provide a better understanding of drawdown patterns in retirement. Our analysis indicates that most retirees in their 60’s and 70’s draw down on their account-based pensions at modest rates, close to the minimum amounts each year. The research also suggests that most retirees would die with substantial amounts unspent if these drawdown rates were to continue. These findings are consistent with extant empirical evidence which indicates that retirees are inclined to draw down their wealth relatively slowly.
Changing the way in which the drawdown phase is framed may therefore help people’s decision-making. As the superannuation system matures it would also benefit from a greater range of retirement income products to help individuals better manage their longevity risk. Those concerned with superannuation, whether as trustees, advisors or policy makers, can use data-driven behavioural insights to better understand and serve superannuants.
This study is concerned with how digital technology, and other driving forces, will reshape the marketplace for public service delivery in Queensland. The timeframe of ten years provides sufficient scope for strategic planning by the many service-delivery agencies. However, some of the changes are already taking place and many will continue to manifest themselves beyond this timeframe.
The study identifies four scenarios for the year 2025. A scenario is a plausible and evidence-based narrative about the future. People may prefer one scenario over another. However, scenarios do not represent choices. Scenarios are the result of trends and drivers, many of which are powerful and lie beyond the decision maker’s direct control. Scenarios aim to inform current-day strategic decision making by identifying a range of plausible futures. This allows the formulation and implementation of robust strategies that perform well under multiple futures. Scenarios allow decision makers to ‘wind-tunnel’ test a strategic plan to identify whether and how it needs to be improved.
The scenarios presented in this report are designed to help government, industry and community organisations in Queensland plan for the future of public service delivery. The scenarios are relevant to all service-delivery sectors and a wide range of service-delivery models. Equipped with information about plausible futures, organisations will be better positioned to continually grow and improve the standards of service delivery in Queensland while achieving improved cost-efficiency and a reduced regulatory burden.