Land Use Trade-Offs 2 (LUTO 2)

LUTO 2, the second iteration of the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, is designed to analyse and project the spatial distribution of land use in Australia under alternative socioeconomic, policy, and environmental scenarios. This model is a result of a collaborative effort between CSIRO, Deakin University and ClimateWorks Centre. LUTO 2 is an open-source model shared under the GNU General Public License V3. Users can access the source code and input data in a public GitHub repository.
One of the significant enhancements in LUTO 2 is its expanded spatial and temporal scope. Unlike its predecessor, which focused on the intensive agricultural zone, LUTO 2 encompasses the entire Australian continent, providing a comprehensive view of the land-use dynamics at a 1×1 km grid resolution. This allows for a more detailed and extensive analysis of land-use patterns, including the extensive beef grazing systems of northern Australia and other unallocated lands. The model’s temporal horizon has also been extended to span from 2010 to 2100, aligning with long-term climate projections and enabling the assessment of sustainable land-use strategies over a prolonged period.
LUTO 2 models inputs, outputs, land use change and environmental impacts associated with 23 land uses: Winter cereals; Summer cereals excluding rice; Rice; Winter legumes; Summer legumes; Winter oilseeds; Summer oilseeds; Sugar cane; Pastures and crops for hay; Cotton; Other non-cereal crops; Vegetables; Citrus; Apples; Pears and other pome fruit; Stone fruit excluding tropical; Tropical stone fruit; Nuts; Plantation fruit; Grapes; Dairy; Beef; Sheep.
The model also includes three agricultural management solutions (asparagopsis, ecological grazing, precision agriculture) and 3 non-agricultural land-uses (environmental plantings, riparian plantings, agroforestry). Spatially-explicit modelling of mallee-based Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and biodiversity indicators based on habitat suitability are also included in LUTO 2.
Off-land commodities analysis in LUTO 2 includes pork, poultry, aquaculture, and alternative protein sources, such as lab-grown meat and mycoprotein. The model assesses these commodities’ demand for crop-based feed, evaluating feed efficiency and composition (proportion of grass versus grain) across various livestock sectors.
Climate change impacts on agricultural production and water yields are assessed using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones V4 model and CMIP6 climate projections, supported by simulations from eight global climate models.