Sub-project 3 – November 2019

November 25th, 2019

Recent work in SP3 has included running simulations in the Australian Animal Disease Spread model (AADIS) using the new capacity developed by the FMD Ready project to compare alternative strategies for post-outbreak surveillance and management. This now allows us to better compare the cost and effectiveness of different diagnostic tests and surveillance approaches. Work is also continuing on the economic analysis using the results of AADIS scenarios to investigate trade losses.

The disease modelling to date has shown that vaccination may not always be the most appropriate response for an FMD outbreak in Australia, but that the response strategy will depend on the size and location of the outbreak and the species affected. For a larger-scale outbreak, modelling with AADIS can assist in understanding when vaccination should be considered for use in a control strategy – particularly in intensive production areas

The disease modelling has also shown that containment zones are very important to reduce losses to producers by potentially facilitating trade negotiations of products from areas outside of the containment zones.

The project would like to thank Elsa Schalck and Julie Pinol, who worked with us on subproject 3 this year as interns from AgroParisTech. As part of their internships, Elsa and Julie undertook their own research projects:

  • Elsa used the AADIS model to run simulations of FMD spread from thousands of possible seed herds all over Australia. Mapping the number of infected farms after three weeks helps us understand the role of geography in disease spread.
  • Julie combined data about dairy farm income with results from AADIS disease spread scenarios to help analyse the financial threat to dairy farmers located within disease control zones during highly infectious livestock disease outbreaks such as FMD.

It was a pleasure to work with Elsa and Julie and we wish them well with the rest of their studies and in their future careers.