A cloud-based dynamic ecosystem modelling platform for bushfire fuel prediction 

The Challenge 

Prediction of bushfire risk to infrastructure and ecological assets requires an ability to model bushfire fuels under changing climate, vegetation and land management activities. Current models of fuel parameters assume fixed and uniform relationships between broad vegetation groups and fuel characteristics, modified by time since last fire according to a negative-exponential fuel accumulation model. However, bushfire fuel characteristics vary non-linearly across space and time because they are influenced by the dynamic state of an ecosystem. An ecological perspective on fuel characterisation that can describe dynamic feedbacks between historical disturbance regimes, current ecosystem state, and climate projections, is critical for better prediction of future bushfire hazard. 

Our response 

To address this challenge, we established a cross-disciplinary, multi-national team with extensive experience in the development of dynamic ecosystem models. The team undertook a detailed review and documentation of the problem space, user needs for dynamic ecosystem modelling to underpin bushfire fuel prediction, and tools, approaches and technologies (from Australia and North America) that could be used to implement an integrated modelling platform. We engaged more than 30 experts across CSIRO through two online workshops to develop guidelines for conceptual and technical requirements needed to implement the modelling platform. 

Results (Impact) 

This Digital Water and Landscapes seed project has developed a pathway to implementation of an integrated modelling platform that will incorporate dynamic fire-vegetation-climate feedbacks in the prediction of risk to ecological, agricultural and built assets from bushfires. The vision for the platform is a tool for exploring bushfire risk profiles under different climate and land management scenarios, at relevant spatial resolutions, across the entire continent. Implementation of the vision will facilitate digital uplift of CSIRO’s deep domain expertise in ecological systems, broadening the application space for the emerging science area of dynamic ecosystem modelling. 

The implementation plan describes a two-year program of activities to develop a proof-of-concept modelling platform for a fire-prone case study region in southern Australia. The platform would undertake near-term (5-10 years out) annual prediction of bushfire fuels, and hazard reporting, with flexibility to expand to longer-term forecasting of bushfire hazard under different climate and land management scenarios, and at larger spatial scales.  

Additional information 

Below is a conceptual approach behind the dynamic ecosystem modelling platform developed as part of the project.

 

For more information contact Anna Richards anna.richards@csiro.au