Human-Earth-System framework for assessing Carbon Dioxide Removal strategies

Project duration: July 2023–June 2026

Project lead

Dr David Newth

Principal Research Scientist

Team

Andrew Lenton

Opportunity

To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world will need to reach net zero emissions by the year 2050. Reaching net zero will fundamentally require the development and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Even under the most ambitious scenario for CO₂ and other greenhouse gas reductions, carbon removals will be needed alongside decarbonisation efforts i.e. emissions reductions.

This means that CDR technologies must be deployed at scale and before the middle of the century.

Countries are taking steps to reduce emissions using pathways provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC provides future climate scenarios for governments and society which are called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSPs provide different decarbonisation scenarios for global emissions reductions based on varying adaptation and mitigation measures.

Despite the importance of CDR in reaching net zero, there is a lack of corresponding socioeconomic analyses on these technologies. This knowledge gap currently presents a challenge for scientists, policymakers, industry stakeholders and the public in understanding how CDR might be integrated with other climate mitigation efforts.

There is limited understanding in how, for example, the large-scale deployment of CDRs will distort wider economic activities. Adding complexity, CDR inherently involves large-scale interventions in the Earth system. There are knowledge gaps around how these interventions might lead to unintended consequences, including for ecosystems, biodiversity loss, or unexpected environmental and social impacts.

There is subsequently an opportunity to evaluate CDR from a holistic perspective to help decision-makers understand how we might deploy CDR at scale. Such an integrated analysis would provide a socioeconomic framework to help evaluate CDR challenges (trade-offs, risks, benefits) in response to potential climate change impacts (provided by Earth system models).

Goal

A type of framework called Human-Earth-System interactions can help to describe pathways to carbon dioxide removal. This framework couples an economic model (e.g. global trade and environmental model) with an Earth systems model to provide an integrated view of how human actions to use CDR at scale might influence greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows how climate change impacts (i.e. from lack of scale) might influence human behaviour, ranging from welfare to consumption and other changes.

This project aims to critically evaluate the viability and effectiveness of CDR within the Human-Earth-System framework.

By considering the interconnectedness of these components, we seek to address potential bio-physical challenges, social, economic considerations, and unintended consequences associated with the implementation of CDR strategies.

Our evaluation will encompass technical, economic, social, and ethical dimensions. This will include:

1. Technological challenges: Many CDR technologies, such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) and large-scale afforestation, are still in the early stages of development. Technical challenges, including scalability, efficiency, and reliability, may hinder their deployment on a large scale, along with the economic and institutional structures needed to bring the technologies into existence.
2. Energy and resource requirements: CDR methods, especially technological approaches like DAC, require significant amounts of energy. There is limited understanding how the large scale deployment of CDRs will distort wider economic activities. The energy and resource-intensive nature of these processes raises concerns about the overall environmental impact and the potential counterproductivity or produce adverse impacts on the earth system.
3. Land use and competition: Large-scale afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may compete with existing land uses, such as agriculture and urban development. Striking a balance between CDR efforts and other land-use needs poses a challenge.
4. Regulatory and governance challenges: The absence of clear regulations and governance frameworks for CDR strategies poses challenges. The international community needs robust governance structures to address potential conflicts, ensure transparency, and establish ethical standards.
5. Unintended consequences: Implementing large-scale interventions in the Earth system carries inherent risks of unintended consequences. These may include disruptions to ecosystems, biodiversity loss, or unexpected environmental and social impacts.
6. Lack of policy frameworks: Adequate policy frameworks that incentivise and support the development and deployment of CDR technologies are often lacking. Policy gaps may impede the integration of CDR into broader climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Barriers

Ultimately, the question to be explored is whether the pursuit of CDR is a worthwhile endeavour in the broader quest to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

To answer this complex question, we will:

• Evaluate the viability of CDR within the Human-Earth-System framework: Critically assess the feasibility and effectiveness of CDR strategies in the context of the complex and interconnected Human-Earth-System. This involves analysing the potential benefits, limitations, and challenges associated with implementing CDR technologies and biological processes to mitigate climate change.
• Consider planetary boundaries and constrained problem solving: The project aims to shift the perspective from a narrow focus on greenhouse gas emissions management to a broader understanding of the Earth system as a constrained problem within the Human-Earth-System. The analysis will take into account the existence of planetary boundaries and the potential bio-physical, economic and social consequences of transgressing them.
• Examine economic and policy settings: Investigate the economic implications and policy considerations associated with the adoption and deployment of CDR technologies and strategies. This involves assessing the economic feasibility of CDR technologies, exploring potential impacts on various sectors, and analysing the effectiveness of existing or proposed policies in facilitating the implementation of CDR. Understanding the economic dimensions and policy frameworks is crucial for developing sustainable and pragmatic approaches to address climate change within the Human-Earth-System context.

We will take a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach, involving collaboration between scientists, policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the public to ensure the ethical, effective, and equitable integration of CDR into global climate change mitigation efforts.

References

Scealy, R., Newth, D., Gunasekera, D., & Finnigan, J. (2012). Effects of variation in the grains sector response to climate change: an integrated assessment. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 31(3), 327-336.

Porfirio, L. L., Newth, D., Finnigan, J. J., & Cai, Y. (2018). Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change. Palgrave Communications, 4(1).

Newth, D., Gooley, G., & Gunasekera, D. (2021). Socio-Economic Analysis of Climate Services in Disaster Risk Reduction: A Perspective on Pacific SIDS. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9, 681747.