Diverse response of global temperature

By October 29th, 2021

ACCESS simulations have contributed to a recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters by Harun Rashid:
Diverse responses of global-mean surface temperature to external forcings and internal climate variability in observations and CMIP6 models‘.


The paper analyses the warming of global mean surface temperature over the last one and a-half centuries due to the combined effects of human produced greenhouse gases and aerosols and naturally occurring volcanic eruptions and solar output changes. In addition to these external influences, temperature change is also influenced by the internal variability of the climate system. The paper uses observations and simulations from 42 climate models to examine the contributions of external forcings and internal variability on global temperature change and how this differs between models. Understanding the reasons for these differences may help improve the confidence in climate change projections.


Global mean surface temperature anomalies from observations (black) and models (grey), with the model mean (red). Anomalies were computed from the 1850-1900 climatology. Taken from Fig 1b, Rashid (2021).