SEEKER

SEEKER (Simulations of Emergency Evacuations for Knowledge, Education and Response) is an evacuation modelling and decision‑support tool developed by CSIRO to explore how evacuations unfold at the scale of people and communities. SEEKER focuses on how individuals respond as a threat develops—such as a bushfire or flood—and how those responses play out through the transport network under different emergency response conditions.

While large‑scale tools such as SAFER help identify where evacuation risk is likely to concentrate across regions or states, many of the most consequential challenges emerge locally and over time. As hazards progress, people react to what they observe and to information they receive, including warnings and advice. These responses influence when people attempt to move, where they go, and how traffic demand builds, often leading to congestion that affects subsequent movement and exposure to risk.

SEEKER enables emergency services and planners to test evacuation plans and assumptions using realistic “what‑if” scenarios. This includes exploring the effects of different warning timings and messages, traffic management measures, and staged or targeted evacuation strategies as conditions evolve. By combining representations of human behaviour with scenario‑based testing of emergency response actions, SEEKER supports examination of how response decisions influence congestion, clearance times and risk to communities under uncertainty.

Why human behaviour matters in evacuation

Evacuation outcomes are shaped as much by human behaviour as by infrastructure or hazard conditions. In real events, people respond differently to the same situation. Some act quickly, others delay, and many revise their plans as new information becomes available. Factors such as prior experience, perceived risk, responsibilities, trust in warnings and conditions on the road all influence when and how people attempt to move.

These responses play a critical role in how evacuation demand builds over time. Delayed departures can compress demand into shorter periods, while early movement can shift congestion to different locations. Intermediate actions, such as travelling to familiar places or changing destinations, can further affect traffic flow and exposure to hazard. As a result, evacuation performance often differs markedly from idealised assumptions.

By explicitly representing these behavioural responses, SEEKER moves evacuation planning beyond simplified or optimistic scenarios. It allows examination of how different patterns of behaviour alter congestion, clearance times and risk, and how emergency response actions—such as warnings or traffic management—may influence outcomes. This supports clearer understanding of the limits of evacuation and helps identify situations where alternative strategies may need consideration.

Simulating decisions, movement and consequences

SEEKER models evacuation as a dynamic process shaped by decisions, movement and their consequences over time. Individuals in the simulated population are represented as agents who respond to evolving conditions, such as hazard progression, changes in warnings, and conditions on the road network. At each stage, agents make decisions based on what they know and experience at that point in time.

As people act on these decisions, they move through a transport network where congestion, delays and interactions with other road users can emerge. These movements affect traffic conditions for others and influence who remains exposed to harm as the situation unfolds. In this way, evacuation outcomes arise from the combined effects of many individual responses rather than from a single assumed behaviour.

SEEKER is designed to explore these dynamics through comparison of scenarios. By varying assumptions about behaviour, warning strategies and emergency response actions, users can examine how evacuation performance changes and where outcomes are most sensitive. This approach supports learning and preparedness by focusing on consequences and trade‑offs rather than a single predicted outcome.

Questions SEEKER helps explore

SEEKER supports exploration of practical questions about evacuation under uncertainty. Rather than producing a single answer, it allows comparison of scenarios to examine how outcomes change under different assumptions and response options.

Examples of questions SEEKER can be used to explore include:

• How does the timing or targeting of warnings influence when people attempt to evacuate and where congestion emerges?
• What are the consequences of different evacuation strategies, such as full evacuation, staged evacuation, or evacuating high‑risk areas only?
• How do traffic management measures, such as road closures or managed intersections, affect evacuation performance?
• When does early movement reduce risk, and when might it increase congestion or exposure?
• Under what conditions does evacuation become difficult or unsafe to complete, suggesting the need to consider alternative protective actions?

Through comparison of scenarios, SEEKER supports identification of sensitivities, constraints and trade‑offs relevant to evacuation planning, preparedness and training.

Inputs and outputs

SEEKER uses a set of scenario inputs to describe the hazard situation under consideration, the population exposed to it, and the emergency response actions being explored. These inputs are used to construct and compare evacuation scenarios rather than to represent real‑time or fully observed conditions.

Inputs typically include:

• A representation of a developing hazard, such as the progression of a bushfire or flood, derived from external modelling or scenario assumptions
• A synthetic representation of the population present in the area, which can accommodate seasonal influxes, visitor populations, and changes in where people are located and active over time
• A road network representing everyday movement and evacuation travel, which is typically validated and adjusted with local expert input before use
• Emergency response actions specified as part of the scenario, such as warning timing and targeting, and traffic management measures

Based on these inputs, SEEKER simulates how people may respond and move as conditions evolve. Outputs describe the consequences of these simulated responses and are intended to support interpretation through comparison rather than exact prediction.

Typical outputs include:

• Patterns of movement through the road network over time
• The emergence and evolution of congestion, including delays on key road segments, intersections and roundabouts
• Indicative evacuation clearance timing under different scenarios
• Changes in the number of people exposed to risk as the situation unfolds

SEEKER outputs are most meaningful when examined comparatively, allowing users to explore how evacuation outcomes vary under different assumptions and response options.

How SEEKER has been used

Incident management training

SEEKER has been used in incident management team (IMT) training exercises to support evacuation decision‑making during rapidly evolving hazard events. In these settings, simulations were prepared for specified hazard and population assumptions and used to examine the implications of different emergency response actions, such as warning timing, traffic management measures and alternative evacuation strategies. This use enabled IMTs to practise decision‑making under time pressure and uncertainty, including consideration of constraints, sequencing of actions, and how decisions taken at different points in time may influence congestion, evacuation clearance and exposure to risk.

Community planning and engagement

SEEKER has been used in community planning and engagement activities undertaken with local governments and emergency agencies, where scenarios were developed for specific locations and explored through workshops and facilitated sessions. This work aimed to improve community understanding of evacuation risk and dynamics, support more informed participation in planning and preparedness, and encourage ownership of evacuation decisions. SEEKER scenarios were used to illustrate how local geography, limited egress options, seasonal population change and timing of departure can affect evacuation conditions, including encouraging earlier departure on high‑risk days, such as catastrophic fire danger days.

Regional evacuation analysis

SEEKER has been used in regional‑scale evacuation analysis conducted with local governments, councils, and municipal and regional emergency management coordination committees. In this context, SEEKER was applied to develop localised evacuation scenarios for specific communities within broader regions to support regional planning and coordination. The modelling examined how evacuation dynamics may unfold under different hazard and emergency response assumptions, including sensitivities related to warning timing and targeting, traffic management arrangements, and population movement across municipal and regional boundaries.

Who has used SEEKER

SEEKER has been developed and applied through sustained engagement with a range of end‑user organisations involved in emergency management, planning and community safety. These organisations have used SEEKER in training, planning and scenario‑based analysis activities as part of their broader responsibilities for evacuation preparedness and coordination.

Organisations that have used SEEKER include:

• State emergency management agencies
• Fire and land management agencies
• Local governments and councils in bushfire‑prone regions
• Municipal emergency management planning committees
• Regional emergency management coordination committees
• Multi‑agency incident management teams
• Community groups engaged in bushfire preparedness and planning

Use of SEEKER has occurred in collaboration with these organisations over multiple years as part of ongoing evacuation modelling and decision‑support research.

Learn more

To learn more about SEEKER, including its development, methods and applications, explore our publications.

If you would like to discuss SEEKER, its use in planning or training activities, or opportunities for collaboration, please contact the CSIRO evacuation modelling team.