Water Forecasting

Forecasting applications to enhance water management, river operations, environmental water delivery and flood mitigation

Tailoring forecasts for operational applications

The Challenge

Climate and weather extremes like drought and floodings directly affect everyday lives. These extremes are expected to increase in frequency and severity with a changing climate. Water managers, emergency responders and the agricultural sector can respond effectively to extreme events if they have time to prepare. Accurate forecasting systems give them this time.

Advances in observation systems, modelling methods and computing resources are enabling rapid improvements in the accuracy forecasts of weather and streamflow. Water managers and the agricultural sector need support on how best to harness these advances. This includes generating the best forecasts for their applications and translating these forecasts into improved operational decisions. Future improvements to forecasts will give water managers the foresight to navigate an uncertain future.

The Response

CSIRO collaborates with industry and government agencies to develop cutting-edge forecasting systems. We work with our partners to understand how ensemble forecasts can be used to make the best decisions.

CSIRO develops methods to extract information from weather, climate and hydrological models to produce more accurate forecasts for managers of water and agriculture. Our methods harness leading statistical and machine learning methods to quantify the uncertainty in these forecasts, allowing forecast users to make risk-based decisions. We use forecasts for historical events to hone forecast-informed decision-making and assess the value of forecasts in routine operations.

The Impact

CSIRO’s advances in forecasting methods have been deployed operationally within Australia and internationally. Seasonal and 7-day streamflow forecasting services have been developed collaboratively with the Bureau of Meteorology and are routinely producing forecasts for hundreds of locations across Australia.

CSIRO has collaborated with water managers such as Hydro Tasmania and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority to develop and deploy tailored forecasting systems. CSIRO has shown that the adoption of new forecasting systems in operational decision-making leads to more efficient water management operations and reduced risks to communities.

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