Likely impacts of reservoir sedimentation on water availability and demand in the canal commands of the Indus Basin Irrigation System
Presentation of results from a long-term modelling study on the waters of the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), published as an (open access) paper in the Journal of Hydrology. In the paper the likely provincial-scale impacts on water availability and demand in the canal commands of the IBIS under scenarios of reservoir sedimentation, with and without the overlay of climate change.
Drivers of changes on irrigation supply considered and reported in the paper are:
- continuing reservoir sedimentation and operation under the 1991 Inter-provincial Water Apportionment Accord
- projected climate change impacts on the inflows from the Upper Indus Basin into the IBIS
- projected climate change impacts on rainfall and evapotranspiration (i.e. changes in local hydrology) within the IBIS
- the implications of changes in the water balance for potential changes to areas of irrigated crops in the IBIS.
- IBIS may be more impacted by climate change in the Upper Indus Basin than local hydrology.
- Sedimentation combined with climate change exacerbates dry season water shortages.
- Water availability reductions in the dry season could impact Pakistan’s food security.
Citation: Ahmad MuD, JL Peña-Arancibia, Y Yu, JP Stewart, GM Podger, JM Kirby (2021) Climate change and reservoir sedimentation implications for irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin Irrigation System in Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology Vol 603(B), 126967 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126967
This research is funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), CSIRO and DFAT.