RiskWi$e Welcome and Background

RiskWi$e (the National Risk Management Initiative), is a 5-year national program seeking to understand and improve the risk-reward outcomes for Australian grain growers.

This program is different from many of GRDC’s other research activities as it aims to apply participatory action research methods. This involves grain growers and other key stakeholders in the identification of on-farm decisions that have unknown components of risk-reward. Research and other activities in the project will be designed to actively involve farmers and advisors in interpreting and learning alongside the researchers.

Through partnerships between growers, advisors, grower groups and research providers we are aiming to better understand the risk and reward relationships for key on-farm management decisions. Ultimately the project aims to support growers and their advisors quantifying the probabilities of uncertainty of outcomes and assessing the probability of upside returns against associated downside risks for important management decisions in the context of their own farming operations.

The RiskWise team involves over 30 different partners spanning the grain growing regions. There are 6 regional action research groups covering Western Australia (led by GGA), central and southern Queensland (led by DAFQ), New South Wales (led by CSU), Victoria (led by BCG), SE South Australia (led by Hart Group) and the Eyre Peninsula (led by AIR EP). The national project team, led by CSIRO in partnership with the University of Western Australia, University of Melbourne, University of Queensland and SARDI have the role of coordinating and supporting the regional groups in their research, providing analytical and modelling support and undertaking behavioural science research.

While RiskWise will aim to address several important risky decisions for grain growers, initially the program has focused on improving decision making related to nitrogen management in the farming system. Nitrogen fertilisers are the largest variable input costs for most grain growers, and uncertainty in response and return on investment from their use is often challenging to many producers when deciding on their N management approach.  

Trials underway

The first year of the project had a strong Nitrogen focus, while subsequent themes from ARGs were under development.

There are currently 53 items on the  ARG Field and Trial Activities list.xlsx, representing 58 experiments or activities. Bear in mind we are still in the process of updating and tidying this list and I am assuming there are no missing experiments!

There are 37 experiments that fit the ‘N decisions’ theme, of which 21 include an N-bank treatment and are classified as N-banking trials. The 13+ remaining trials do not include an N-bank treatment per se, but they do include N strategy decisions that are season-responsive or rate-based and they do warrant inclusion in the larger database. All these trials are running for 1-5 years, with most for 3-4 years.

N decision trials:

• 21 that include an N-bank treatment
  • NSW: Walgett, Gurley, Premer, Temora, Harden, Condobolin, Griffith, Narromine, Wongarbon
  • VIC: Longerengong, Gnarwarre, Walpeup Constrained, Walpeup Unconstrained, Carwarp, Curyo, Marlbed (Birchip), Dookie
  • SA: Bute, Cootra, Cockaleechie, Kybunga
• 11 that do not include an N-bank treatment, but do include season-responsive N strategies
  • WA: Pithara, Kendenup, Esperance, Elabbin, Merredin
  • QLD:  Roma x3, St George x3
• 2 that do not include an N-bank treatment, but do include rate * method * timing strategies
  • QLD: Capella, Brigalow
• 3 to be confirmed

Typical ‘N decisions’ trial design:

	NSW	VIC	SA	WA	QLD
	Walgett, Gurley, Premer, Temora, Harden, Condobolin, Griffith, Narromine, Wongarbon	Longerengong, Gnarwarre, Walpeup Constrained, Walpeup Unconstrained, Carwarp, Curyo, Marlbed (Birchip), Dookie	Bute, Cootra, Cockaleechie, Kybunga	Pithara, Kendenup, Esperance, Elabbin, Merredin	Capella, Brigalow, Roma x3, St George x3
Controls	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil
	National average	National average	National average
Season-responsive	Decile 1	Decile 1	Decile 1		Decile 1
decile -based	Decile 2-3	Decile 2-3	Decile 2-3	Decile 3	Decile 2-3
	Decile 5	Decile 4-7	Decile 4-7	Decile 5	Decile 4-7
	Decile 7-8	Decile 8-9	Decile 8-9	Decile 7-8
Season-responsive	Forecast Responsive (BOM)	Forecast Responsive (BOM)	Forecast Responsive (BOM)
	Financially Responsive
Replacement-based	Replacement Rate	Replacement Rate
	Replacement +30%
	Replacement +30% (to fallow)
	Replacement -30%
N-bank yield based	N Bank Conservative	N Bank Conservative	N Bank Conservative
	N Bank Optimal Profit	N Bank Optimal Profit	N Bank Optimal Profit
	N Bank Optimal Yield	N Bank Optimal Yield	N Bank Optimal Yield
N-bank profit based	N bank profit optimal	N bank profit optimal
	High N upfront + replacement N
Rate-based					Standard rate
					High rate
Non-N treatments	Crop rotation			Crop sequence	Timing
					Application method
					P, K
					Deep rip