The CoCoNet model
The Coral Community Network (CoCoNet) model was developed to explore the role of physical, ecological, and human processes in controlling the health of coral reef systems. This includes understanding reef futures under different climate scenarios and their responses to interventions aimed at protecting and restoring coral reefs.
The current version of CoCoNet has been implemented and calibrated for the GBR system, where it represents communities of corals, crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS), benthic invertebrates, and key fish groups (invertivores, emperors and coral trout). Reef populations interact through predator-prey relationships and are linked through the dispersal of larvae by ocean currents. They are also impacted by changing environmental conditions, including tropical cyclones, marine heat waves, and ocean acidification.
Further details on the CoCoNet model can be found through the information sheet, technical summary, or references below.
The Coral Community Network (CoCoNet) model was developed to explore the role of physical, ecological, and human processes in controlling the health of coral reef systems.
Understanding our current trajectory
Without intervention, the health of the Great Barrier Reef will depend on the rate that greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. CSIRO modelling suggests that the best case (sustainability) will allow the Reef to persist to the end of the century, whereas the worst case (regional rivalry) may see the Reef disappear before the end of the century.
CSIRO modelling
Benefits of existing management
Historically, management initiatives on the GBR have focused on improving the water quality of coastal runoff, controlling fishing pressure through spatial zoning and other regulation, and control of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS). Modelling indicates that changes in zoning and fisheries regulations deployed to 2004 likely prevented a catastrophic tipping point, whereby continued overfishing of coral trout and emperor fish could have lead to continuous outbreaks of CoTS and substantial reductions in coral.
Evaluating novel interventions
Future interventions could include coral replenishment (collecting and redistributing natural coral larvae), coral enhancement (breeding and deploying more thermally tolerant corals), local shading (artificial fogging), and regional shading (cloud brightening). The CoCoNet model provides a platform to compare the potential effectiveness of such interventions across a range of scales.
References
- Castro-Sanguino, C., Bozec, Y. M., Condie, S. A., Fletcher, C. S., Hock, K., Roelfsema, C., Westcott, D. A., & Mumby, P. J. (2023). Control efforts of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks to limit future coral decline across the Great Barrier Reef. Ecosphere, 14(6). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4580
- Condie, S. A. (2022). Changing the climate risk trajectory for coral reefs. Frontiers in Climate, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.980035
- Condie, S. A., Anthony, K. R. N., Babcock, R. C., Baird, M. E., Beeden, R., Fletcher, C. S., Gorton, R., Harrison, D., Hobday, A. J., Plaganyi, E. E., & Westcott, D. A. (2021). Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef. Royal Society Open Science, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296
- Condie, S. A., Plaganyi, E. E., Morello, E. B., Hock, K., & Beeden, R. (2018). Great Barrier Reef recovery through multiple interventions. Conservation Biology, 32(6), 1356-1367. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13161
- Condie, S. A., & Porobic, J. (2025). CoCoNet: Coral Community Network Model User Guide and Technical Summary. CSIRO.
- Stoeckl, N., Condie, S., & Anthony, K. (2021). Assessing changes to ecosystem service values at large geographic scale: A case study for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Ecosystem Services, 51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101352
