Net zero options for heavy industry

A new project is unlocking investment in energy infrastructure for net zero industrial hubs.

Working out the best energy mix for heavy industrial hubs, optimising for both environmental impact and cost, is a knotty problem. But getting it right could not only result in better outcomes, it could mean the survival of Australian industries in a net zero world.

Every heavy industry hub has a unique combination of requirements for iron, steel, alumina, cement, chemicals and so on, and resources including electricity, gas, heat, hydrogen and water. Transitioning to net zero requires a phased approach, that has to be in alignment with the progressive transition of the sector and also in agreement with the target emission reduction set by the Australian government.

The Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) modelling approach being adopted by the National Energy Analysis Centre, is ideally suited to this wicked problem. Dr Tara Hosseini is leading a Heavy Industry Low-carbon Transition Cooperative Research Centre (HILT CRC) project using MBSE to recommend the optimum path forward for several heavy industry hubs in Australia.

What the project will achieve

The objective of the ‘Unlocking investment in energy infrastructure for net zero industrial hubs’ project is to develop plausible scenarios for the decarbonisation of heavy industries in regional hubs. The main aim is to determine the optimal mix of different types of energy for heavy industries, with an emphasis on cost-effectiveness and sustainability. The project will explore short-term options such as using transitional fuel like natural gas where possible, and long-term strategies aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. By recommending technologies and practices where appropriate – such as mechanical vapour recompression and CHP (combined heat and power) – the project aims to improve energy efficiency significantly.

“The three-year project will focus on specific industrial hubs including Pilbara, Kwinana, and the Upper Spencer Gulf, among others,” Tara explained.

By tailoring energy solutions to the unique needs of these hubs, the project will ensure that the heavy industries in these regions can transition smoothly to more sustainable energy practices.”

“The project will provide clear, data-driven estimates of energy costs and most efficient energy flows within and between industries, at five yearly increments up to 2050 to inform government policy and enable the heavy industry to plan its decarbonisation pathway,” Tara said.

Comprehensive research methodology

The HILT CRC project builds on work that focused on hydrogen alone, and which earned Dr Hosseini the 2024 HILT CRC Award for ‘Best Contribution to De-risking and Accelerating Decarbonisation’. Dr Hosseini, a PhD-qualified chemical engineer, brings extensive experience in hydrogen production technologies, techno-economic assessment and lifecycle analysis. As the chair of the RD20 taskforce for the technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen production, she has valuable international insight into this space.

How the project connects to NEAC

The National Energy Analysis Centre (NEAC) aims to accelerate and de-risk the energy transformation in Australia by combining modern systems science with social innovation. The HILT project aligns perfectly with NEAC’s focus areas, including decarbonisation, resilience, equity, economic opportunity, and innovation.

The HILT project will utilise NEAC’s Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) model as a holistic, coherent and scalable multi-energy model. Prof Amro Farid, an MBSE expert at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the USA and an integral member of the NEAC team, is an active participant in the Unlocking investment in energy infrastructure for net zero industrial hubs project.

NEAC’s mission includes providing data and analysis to support policy and decision-making. The findings from the HILT project will feed into NEAC’s broader analytical framework, helping to inform government policies and industry practices. This synergy will ensure that the transition to sustainable energy in heavy industries is guided by rigorous, data-driven insights.