How Model-Based Systems Engineering will amplify NEAC’s value

Professor Amro Farid explains why using model-based systems engineering in the National Energy Analysis Centre will result in more accurate modelling.

By Claire Jordan-Peters and Amro M. Farid

In our last newsletter, we explained what Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is, and why it’s important. In this article we delve into our plans to integrate MBSE into the National Energy Analysis Centre (NEAC), and what you will be able to do with it.

Developing a holistic multi-energy system model using MBSE

MBSE is about the development of a visualised, conceptual or graphical model of a real-life system, which then serves as the basis for the development of a suite of mutually consistent mathematical models, that are ultimately realised in the form of software simulations.

The NEAC team is applying MBSE to conceive a transition to a net zero emissions future.   We recognise that no single software tool currently exists to model, study, analyse, or design Australia’s energy system as a whole.  A new integrative and pluralistic approach is needed, and MBSE will provide that.

First, we produce graphical models of the “multi-energy system” – that is including the electric power, natural gas, oil, coal, hydrogen, heating, transportation, and water systems.  We use systems thinking to understand the interdependencies between these systems as well as their impacts on imports, exports, and the domestic economy. The resulting graphical model is called a reference architecture.   Its top level is shown visually below.

The reference architecture is used to build instantiated mathematical models that apply to a specific region like Australia. From such a graphical depiction, MBSE enables the user to understand and hopefully manage the complex interdependencies and requirements that we find in the Australian multi-energy system as it goes through its transition to a net zero emissions future. 

What the holistic multi-energy system model would do

The multi-energy system model will help to answer questions with cross-sectoral interdependencies.  For example: 

• How can Australia evolve its electric vehicle charging network to simultaneously ease travel and support the electric grid? 
• How can industrial heat be used most efficiently in an industrial hub?
• If a massive hydrogen project commences operation, how would that impact the state’s water supplies and the electricity network?
• What impact would an emergency shutdown of a gas processing plant have on downstream electricity production, hydrogen production, and household heating?
• How can we ensure that the buildout to a sustainable energy future is simultaneously resilient to the changing climate and its extreme weather events? 
• How is the transition to sustainable energy constrained by the availability of critical minerals and manufacturing capacity abroad? 
• When a region gradually phases out residential gas, what is the impact on the late adopters?
• How may Australia’s electricity markets evolve to accommodate billions of new consumer energy resources?
• How does the transition to sustainable energy bring about equitable outcomes to Australia’s diverse populations?   
• How can community solar and battery programs enhance community resilience to emergency situations? 
• If Australia adopted nuclear power, what impact would a nuclear power plant have on the network, local water resources and ports?

How NEAC will bring MBSE to energy planners and regulators

CSIRO is building the National Energy Analysis Centre (NEAC), including a Systems Science Toolbox with rich data, analytical capabilities, and powerful geospatial visualisation tools. MBSE will be at the heart of NEAC, combining cleaned open access datasets with existing and new analytical tools. NEAC will provide APIs to enable integration with other datasets and models.

The National Energy Analysis Centre will act as a unifying bridge, fostering synergies among diverse stakeholders including governments, utilities, advocates, researchers and commercial enterprises to propel a collective approach forward.

If you would like to discuss how NEAC could help you, please contact us.