Integrated assessment modelling of future food and land-use

We examine the possible effects of future population and economic growth, and their impacts on the environment and human populations using global integrated assessment models. There are lots of models with different strengths and weaknesses, but together they are complementary, and can be used to project different future development pathways.

We collaborate with several of the world’s well-respected institutions (IIASA, PIK, and IFPRI), setting up integrated assessment frameworks and in particular with the groups developing the land use and agricultural models used in these frameworks: GLOBIOM, MAgPIE, and IMPACT. The models are used to project the impact of different future scenarios of agriculture on the environment and development outcomes such as reducing poverty and enhancing food security. These future scenarios include the Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). See the figure by Havlík et al. (2014) for an example of our work.

Integrated assessment modelling can inform policy making for the future of land use, food prices, food production and resource use.

Contact Mario Herrero for more information.