Australian MHW forecasts

Forecasts of marine heatwave conditions are generated for each region of Australia illustrated in the map. The Gulf of Carpentaria cannot be forecast as this region is not well represented in the input data.

Each of the plots below shows the historical average temperature for the box (black) and the seasonal climatology (blue line).  The recent observed temperature (black) and threshold for a marine heatwave index for the box (blue) can be compared to the forecast temperature for the region (red). Where the red line exceeds the blue line, we forecast MHWs are likely. The second column shows the forecast skill for each region (based on correlation and mean-square-error, MSE).

Forecast date – August 2021 (July data, forecasting thru to Dec, Jan, Feb, 2022)

1. North Queensland

Forecast skill
2. South Queensland

 

Forecast skill

3. Eastern Australia

Forecast skill

4. South-east Australia

Forecast skill

5. Victoria-South Australia

Forecast skill

6. Great Australia Bight

Forecast skill

7. South-west Australia

Forecast skill

8. West Australia

Forecast skill

9. North-west Australia

Forecast skill

Forecast date – May 2021 (based on data to March 2021, forecasting to May, June, July, August)

1. North Queensland
Forecast skill
2. South Queensland

Forecast skill

3. Eastern Australia

Forecast skill

4. South-east Australia

Forecast skill

5. Victoria-South Australia

Forecast skill

6. Great Australia Bight

Forecast skill

7. South-west Australia

Forecast skill

8. West Australia

Forecast skill

9. North-west Australia

Forecast skill

10. Northern Australia

Forecast skill