Modelling Circular Economy Transition Targets

The challenge

Australia has an aim to achieve an 80 per cent resource recovery rate from all waste streams. However, its current circularity rate is 4 per cent.

This highlights the need to extend the life of resources through changes in design and reuse, and supporting a circular economy through policy change and innovation.

The National Circular Economy Policy Framework sets out key goals, including doubling the circularity rate by 2035, reducing the per-capita material footprint, improving material productivity, and increasing the recycling rate.

Our response

We have produced a report, Modelling Circular Economy Transition Targets, to provide the Australian government with insights into the economic benefits and greenhouse gas reductions achievable through circular economy policies. It builds on our modelling for the United Nations Environment Programme’s International Resource Panel flagship report, Global Environmental Outlook.

We assess the implications of the circular economy policy for Australia’s circularity rate, material footprint, material productivity, and landfill diversion using modelling data from 2010 to 2024 as a baseline, and key indicator trends to project up to 2035 and 2050 through integrated environmental-economic modelling.

The report defines ambitious yet attainable targets for Australia’s transition to a circular economy.

Impact

Our report supports theAustralian government’s National Circular Economy Policy Framework, which is designed to promote sustainability, economic growth, and innovation.

The policy framework relies on collaboration between industries and the innovation ecosystem, supported by metrics to set targets and monitor progress toward achieving these goals. Our research provides robust metrics and indicators to track Australia’s progress in achieving a circular economy. Findings from our report have been adopted by the Australian Treasury for the Measuring What Matters wellbeing framework circular economy domain.

Report

Text version of the report

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