Zooming in on the future of the grains sector

The Ag2050 scenarios developed by CSIRO provide a whole-of-sector perspective about the future of Australia’s farming systems. But how will each of these four scenarios unfold in specific industries?

We ran our first ‘scenario translation’ exercise with the Leadership Team and Board of industry body GrainGrowers Ltd to understand how the Australian grains sector could be impacted under each of the Ag2050 scenarios. Our goal was to explore the risks, opportunities and uncertainties that these scenarios pose for the future grains sector in Australia and explore the key strategic issues and considerations for grain growers in navigating these plausible changes.

We used design-led tools such as personas to explore how different types of growers could be impacted and respond under alternative futures.

By looking at the scenarios through a grower-led view of the future, we could identify how the support they’ll need might change with each scenario.

Through these future-focused discussions, GrainGrowers was able to identify existing roles and activities that will continue to be important to the industry into the future, as well as new areas where they can support its members in navigating and driving future transitions.

Critically, this process helped illustrate how each of the Ag2050 scenarios is already starting to emerge across the Australian agriculture sector, with some futures reflected more strongly in certain sectors or regions than others. The opportunity for the Australian grains sector is to identify what responses – whether from a policy, research, education or other perspective – are needed to encourage the ‘spread’ of desirable outcomes and minimise the emergence of less desirable outcomes.

If you’re interested in learning more about how you can translate the Ag2050 future scenarios into your industry or organisational context, reach out to the CSIRO team at Ag2050@csiro.au.